Arizona D vs. BYU O

Arizona Defense vs. BYU Offense

BYU Offense Key Departures: Mitch Matthews, Devon Blackmon, Ryker Matthews

BYU Offense Key Returnees: Taysom Hill, Tanner Mangum, Algernon Brown, Jamaal Charles, every one not named Ryker on the O-Line

Arizona Defense Key Departures: Scooby Wright, Will Parks

Arizona Defense Key Returnees: Paul Magloire, Davante' Neal, Tellas Jones, DeAndre' Miller

So here is what I know. BYU has some talented personnel, two great QBs and a new offensive system under a Heisman Trophy winning guy who coached high school last year. Arizona has an entirely new staff, had an abysmal 2015, and is due for mean regression in 2016. In other words I think BYU will be good and Taysom Hill is going to cause Arizona some problems.

BYU's offense ranked 34th in the country so it was also pretty good, but Hill sat almost all of 2015 after being injured against Nebraska. Hill is in the conversation as the best dual threat QB in the country and has been named the starter. He hasn't played much in the last two years and Arizona has to hope he has some rust.

BYU also returns Jamaal Charles at RB and should be able to run the ball very effectively behind an offensive line that returns almost the entire two deep.

Arizona is another story. After improving markedly under Jeff Casteel injuries totally derailed Arizona in 2015. Casteel relied on pressure out of the LBs to generate a pass rush and this area was brutally hit with injury, exposing a startling lack of depth in the unit. Opponents could simply sit back and pick Arizona apart.

The new scheme under Marcel Yates should be similar in how it generates pressure and it is likely we see Arizona blitz more than under Casteel, but Arizona returns a lot of expereince across the defense. The question is going to be about whether the defensive line can hold up against the run and provide lanes for the LBs to attack. Arizona is due for a return to at least close to CFB average, far better than the 108 they were at last year. They should be able to get some stops against BYU if they play at that level and keep the game close, but I doubt they have enough talent to keep Hill and Charles from having big games. They just can't have such big games that Arizona gets sucked up to the box and then burned on play action.

Arizona Keys: make BYU pay when they gamble and bring pressure, bend but don't break on Hill and Charles, don't have more than one kicking mistake

BYU Keys: keep Arizona in front of you, settle into new schemes, run to set up the pass

Prediction

I grew up in Wyoming so I have a built in dislike of BYU, which has an absurdly inflated view of itself, and this game might end up being pretty important for Arizona's record in a year where Arizona could improve quite a bit in advanced stats over last year and yet have a worse record, but I can't pick Arizona in this game.

The defense would have improved markedly even if Casteel had been kept on, but you can't put your faith in a unit that has a best case scenario as "sunny side of average" against one of the most dynamic players in college football in Hill. The offense has settled into a post Matt Scott run of being good, but not anything special and there is nothing that looks to change that against a very competent BYU unit.

BYU 45 Arizona 38