Arizona Offense vs Oregon State Defense
Chart reflect ranking percentile for Offense or Defense vs NCAA
0 is worst unit in NCAA 100 is best
0 is worst unit in NCAA 100 is best
The Arizona offense (#36) is a bit of a paper tiger at this point. They have missed out on playing the two worst defenses in the Pac-12 this year in Oregon and Cal and that has made the offense look worse on paper, but the model controls for that. Compared to the brutal slog of the rest of the season, the game they had against Colorado was great, Colorado has a very good defense and Arizona put up some yards against them, but they left a lot of points on the table. The red zone play calling was terrible. Arizona had 3 shots inside the 10 and they couldn't call basic WR drag plays to free up space on the edge for a TE to run a 5 and out or the QB to make the corner. Rodriguez should be embarrassed by his play calling in the red zone.
Arizona is really very good at per play metrics. They are very good at Play Efficiency and Negative Drives and they are pretty good at Explosive Drives too. Arizona doesn't go 3 and out all that often and they do put up yards. They are pretty good on 3rd down when you control for their SOS.
Arizona is terrible at Drive Efficiency. They are all yards and no points. They out gained Colorado, but walked away empty handed too many times in the red zone. A lot of this is on Rodriguez. I don't think he is paying attention to what is really working on this team with Dawkins in there and adjusting his play calling accordingly. Yes, a lot of this is on the players too, but it is way too deep in the season to get 3 downs inside the 10 and not know what plays are going to work. Arizona also isn't great at D-plus Plays. The line isn't giving anyone enough time and they are not opening enough holes.
That said, we are somehow back talking about the QB situation heading into this game. Here is my take: Dawkins isn't getting all the way through his reads before tucking and running, Solomon is getting through his reads and the offense looks more like a conventional offense under him. Here is the kicker though, Arizona's terrible defense and special teams always leave Arizona with a lot of field to cover. Solomon getting the ball to the mildly talented skill position players means you are going to have to execute a lot of little gains right to score. Dawkins is the most explosive player on Arizona's roster by a country mile; you can talk me into Tate here too. Dawkins gives you the shot to get yards in big chunks and have to run fewer plays, with fewer chances to screw up. The Rich Rod bugaboo ever since Matt Scott and Stoops's players left has been the stalled drive and Solomon is a big part of that. He would be a fine QB if he were on a different team, but he is on this team and I think Arizona is better off working on Dawkins getting deeper into his reads than playing Solomon at this point. Dawkins opens up running lanes and passing windows just by what he does with his legs because defenses have to keep an eye on him. Solomon takes what the defense gives, but with him in the game they don't have to give much against Arizona's really untalented skill players. Play Dawkins and you have a shot to win straight up, play Solomon and you need turnovers and luck.We have terrible short receivers, but maybe call a Dawkins roll out with WR's clearing in and TE running a 7 and out? Do we have that play?— Rob Bowron (@rbowron1856) November 13, 2016
Arizona is really very good at per play metrics. They are very good at Play Efficiency and Negative Drives and they are pretty good at Explosive Drives too. Arizona doesn't go 3 and out all that often and they do put up yards. They are pretty good on 3rd down when you control for their SOS.
Arizona is terrible at Drive Efficiency. They are all yards and no points. They out gained Colorado, but walked away empty handed too many times in the red zone. A lot of this is on Rodriguez. I don't think he is paying attention to what is really working on this team with Dawkins in there and adjusting his play calling accordingly. Yes, a lot of this is on the players too, but it is way too deep in the season to get 3 downs inside the 10 and not know what plays are going to work. Arizona also isn't great at D-plus Plays. The line isn't giving anyone enough time and they are not opening enough holes.
Oregon State's defense (#34) is actually pretty good. They are not always being put in the greatest of field position situations by their offense, and they have played a tough cast of offenses in the Pac-12 North, but the Beavers are improving this year and might make a serious jump next year. They will look forward to playing Arizona because finally their offense won't be matched up against a to 20 defense and they can force Arizona to go the length of the field after a score.
Oregon State is excellent at Drive Efficiency. The Beavers give up far fewer points than you would expect given how many yards they are giving up. They find ways to stop drives and get off the field even when they have given up some first downs. They are really average at Play Efficiency, Explosive Drives and Negative Drives. They don't cause a lot of 3 and outs, they give up some big plays, and they do give up yards. They are pretty good on 3rd down.
The Beavers are not good at D-plus Plays. They have not created many drive or game changing plays this season. If they do cause some turnovers in this game they it could easily get ugly.
Cal is really bad at Drive Efficiency, Play Efficiency, Explosive Drives, Negative Drives, and D-plus Plays. There just isn't much to hang your hat on here.
Oregon State is excellent at Drive Efficiency. The Beavers give up far fewer points than you would expect given how many yards they are giving up. They find ways to stop drives and get off the field even when they have given up some first downs. They are really average at Play Efficiency, Explosive Drives and Negative Drives. They don't cause a lot of 3 and outs, they give up some big plays, and they do give up yards. They are pretty good on 3rd down.
The Beavers are not good at D-plus Plays. They have not created many drive or game changing plays this season. If they do cause some turnovers in this game they it could easily get ugly.
Cal is really bad at Drive Efficiency, Play Efficiency, Explosive Drives, Negative Drives, and D-plus Plays. There just isn't much to hang your hat on here.
Comments
Post a Comment