Since I won't be publishing an updated Beta_Rank for a week or two longer I am going to do a Pac-12 power ranking based on what the presason model projected and what teams have looked like in their games so far.
Mostly in small sample sizes it is better to trust items that confirm things you have data on, even from previous seasons, than to believe some new trend has emerged and we should trust one game's worth of stats on it. That said I do care what you have done on the field this season.
1. USC
Preseason model: #7
(Last week def. #16 Stanford 42-24)
USC looked nothing short of excellent beating Stanford. Sure it s fair to ask whether Chryst will ever put it together enough to make the Stanford offense a threat against good defenses, but that doesn't take away from the Trojans making the Stanford offense look pretty pedestrian outside of a few big plays.
This week at #15 Texas
2. Washington
Preseason model: #6
(Last week def. FCS Montana 63-7)
On the bright side they looked better than they did at Rutgers and Montana might beat Rutgers, but another preseason game where we learned very little about the Huskies. Fresno State is terrible so...
This week vs. #127 Fresno State
3. Stanford
Preseason model: #16
(Last week lost #7 USC 42-24)
Look it is rarely just one guy, even the QB, but Stanford sure looks like an offense that could be very different with a more proficient QB at the helm. They need to put it together on offense to make a run at the Pac-12 North.
This week at #58 SDSU
4. UCLA
Preseason model: #28
(Last week def. #100 Hawai'i 56-23)
The Mora redemption tour rolls on! The defense has looked young at times, which is fair since they did lose a lot in the front 7 off last year's unit. If they make a run at 10 wins it will be because they put it together on defense because the offense looks a lot better this season.
This week vs. #60 Memphis
5. Washington State
Preseason model: #26
(Last week def. #49 Boise State 47-44)
Look I can't sit here and tell you that WSU early season performance is highly predictive of their conference play, but the defense sure looked vulnerable at home to a good, but not great BSU squad. I think Alex Grinch is one of the best in the conference so I wouldn't bet against him figuring it out.
This Week at #52 Oregon State
6. Oregon
Preseason model: #23
(Last week def. #50 Nebraska 42-35)
Oregon looked like the team the model thought they were, until the defense looked like a young unit with a lot to learn. I think the defense is going to grow into a nasty unit in a year or two and maybe even by the end of this year, but it will also probably lose them a game or two this season.
This week at #78 Wyoming
7. Colorado
Preseason model: #36
(Last week def. #46 Colorado State 17-3)
The Buffs beat a horrid Texas State squad handily. Now they get an FCS team. I am legitimately excited for confence play to see if this CU offense is all we thought it would be and if the defense can sustain their how they looked in week 1.
This week vs. Northern Colorado
8. Utah
Preseason model: #55
(Last week def. #62 19-13)
The model might have BYU and Utah just about right given this game. Utah won an ugly slugfest, but I wouldn't run out and anoint their defense great after watching BYU's general incompetence against LSU.
This week vs. #109 San Jose State
9. Cal
Preseason model: #70
(Last week def. Weber State 33-20)
Whooh did Cal burn up the good will quickly from its road win against UNC! Weber State led for a big chunk of this game and Cal often looked like they were not going to pull it out. Luckily we get another referendum on the Bears this week against an Power 5 team.
This week vs. #37 Ole Miss
10. tie Arizona and ASU
Preseason model: #66 and #71
(Last week lost to #67 Houston 19-16 and #58 SDSU 30-20)
Tied together again, though Graham's seat is another level of scorching with ASU fans right now; who it is fair to say have higher expectations that Arizona fans. Both these teams face must win games this week, but in different ways. Graham really needs a W with Oregon, Stanford, and Washington looming. Rodriguez has a MUCH easier schedule, but lose to lowly UTEP and it is clearly over. If Graham loses he could be a candidate for early termination as ASU might jump into the Chip Kelly sweepstakes.
This week vs. #124 UTEP and #35 Texas Tech
12. Oregon State
Preseason model: #53
(Last week lost to #48 Minnesota 48-14)
Oregon State got smoked by Minnesota at home, fair to say the model was optimistic about the Beavers at this point. They could bounce back and steal a win vs. a typically slow starting WSU team at home, but I would not put money on that.
This week vs. #26 Washington State
Mostly in small sample sizes it is better to trust items that confirm things you have data on, even from previous seasons, than to believe some new trend has emerged and we should trust one game's worth of stats on it. That said I do care what you have done on the field this season.
1. USC
Preseason model: #7
(Last week def. #16 Stanford 42-24)
USC looked nothing short of excellent beating Stanford. Sure it s fair to ask whether Chryst will ever put it together enough to make the Stanford offense a threat against good defenses, but that doesn't take away from the Trojans making the Stanford offense look pretty pedestrian outside of a few big plays.
This week at #15 Texas
2. Washington
Preseason model: #6
(Last week def. FCS Montana 63-7)
On the bright side they looked better than they did at Rutgers and Montana might beat Rutgers, but another preseason game where we learned very little about the Huskies. Fresno State is terrible so...
This week vs. #127 Fresno State
3. Stanford
Preseason model: #16
(Last week lost #7 USC 42-24)
Look it is rarely just one guy, even the QB, but Stanford sure looks like an offense that could be very different with a more proficient QB at the helm. They need to put it together on offense to make a run at the Pac-12 North.
This week at #58 SDSU
4. UCLA
Preseason model: #28
(Last week def. #100 Hawai'i 56-23)
The Mora redemption tour rolls on! The defense has looked young at times, which is fair since they did lose a lot in the front 7 off last year's unit. If they make a run at 10 wins it will be because they put it together on defense because the offense looks a lot better this season.
This week vs. #60 Memphis
5. Washington State
Preseason model: #26
(Last week def. #49 Boise State 47-44)
Look I can't sit here and tell you that WSU early season performance is highly predictive of their conference play, but the defense sure looked vulnerable at home to a good, but not great BSU squad. I think Alex Grinch is one of the best in the conference so I wouldn't bet against him figuring it out.
This Week at #52 Oregon State
6. Oregon
Preseason model: #23
(Last week def. #50 Nebraska 42-35)
Oregon looked like the team the model thought they were, until the defense looked like a young unit with a lot to learn. I think the defense is going to grow into a nasty unit in a year or two and maybe even by the end of this year, but it will also probably lose them a game or two this season.
This week at #78 Wyoming
7. Colorado
Preseason model: #36
(Last week def. #46 Colorado State 17-3)
The Buffs beat a horrid Texas State squad handily. Now they get an FCS team. I am legitimately excited for confence play to see if this CU offense is all we thought it would be and if the defense can sustain their how they looked in week 1.
This week vs. Northern Colorado
8. Utah
Preseason model: #55
(Last week def. #62 19-13)
The model might have BYU and Utah just about right given this game. Utah won an ugly slugfest, but I wouldn't run out and anoint their defense great after watching BYU's general incompetence against LSU.
This week vs. #109 San Jose State
9. Cal
Preseason model: #70
(Last week def. Weber State 33-20)
Whooh did Cal burn up the good will quickly from its road win against UNC! Weber State led for a big chunk of this game and Cal often looked like they were not going to pull it out. Luckily we get another referendum on the Bears this week against an Power 5 team.
This week vs. #37 Ole Miss
10. tie Arizona and ASU
Preseason model: #66 and #71
(Last week lost to #67 Houston 19-16 and #58 SDSU 30-20)
Tied together again, though Graham's seat is another level of scorching with ASU fans right now; who it is fair to say have higher expectations that Arizona fans. Both these teams face must win games this week, but in different ways. Graham really needs a W with Oregon, Stanford, and Washington looming. Rodriguez has a MUCH easier schedule, but lose to lowly UTEP and it is clearly over. If Graham loses he could be a candidate for early termination as ASU might jump into the Chip Kelly sweepstakes.
This week vs. #124 UTEP and #35 Texas Tech
12. Oregon State
Preseason model: #53
(Last week lost to #48 Minnesota 48-14)
Oregon State got smoked by Minnesota at home, fair to say the model was optimistic about the Beavers at this point. They could bounce back and steal a win vs. a typically slow starting WSU team at home, but I would not put money on that.
This week vs. #26 Washington State
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