Week 4 Matchup Oregon Offense vs Colorado Defense

Oregon Offense vs Colorado Defense

Rankings reflect ranking percentile for Offense or Defense vs NCAA Smoothed D3.js Radar Chart

Chart reflect ranking percentile for Offense or Defense vs NCAA 
0 is worst unit in NCAA 100 is best

Until Weeks 5-6 the model outputs are directional, but useful

The Oregon offense (#4), looks to be humming so far early in the season. They waltzed past an over matched Virginia team and put up a solid 32 against Nebraska. Dakota Prukop had a better game running than passing, but his running is a big part of what kept Oregon humming in the game. He was better passing against a less talented Virginia squad.

Oregon's offense excels thus far in Drive and Play Efficiency; not always correlated. Oregon generates positive yards and doesn't squander drives. Once they get going, they produce points. Oregon is also explosive. They don't rank in the top tier of explosive offenses, but they generate a lot of points from Explosive drives. Oregon is also on the sunnyside of not allowing D-plus plays (sacks, turnovers, TFLs, pass deflections).

Oregon does get caught in Negative Drives, so it is important that you keep them from getting the first first down and speeding you up. They are middle of the road at third down conversion (weighted by their schedule strength), so you have a pretty good shot at ending their drive if you get them into third down.

Colorado's defense (#5) was pretty good last year, finishing 46th in Beta_Rank and in a small sample this year, they look even better. The model is pretty impressed with holding CSU to 7 and, weirdly, Michigan to 45 on the road.

Colorado is great at Drive Efficiency, which controlling for field position, opponent, explosivenss, and negative drives, means Colorado gives up less points that an average defense by a wide margin. They are great at preventing explosive drives. Colorado is going to make you march down the field. They are also good at creating Negative Drives(drives<3.3333)  and they are great on third down.

Colorado isn't very good at Play Efficiency. They do give up points to teams that can put together drives with high yard, but not explosive level, plays. They don't create a lot of D-plus plays. They'll rely on sound execution vs. an Oregon team that is very different offensively from a Jim Harbaugh coached team.

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