Week 4 Matchup Utah Offense vs USC Defense

Utah Offense vs USC Defense

Chart reflect ranking percentile for Offense or Defense vs NCAA 
0 is worst unit in NCAA 100 is best

Until Weeks 5-6 the model outputs are directional, but useful

The Utah offense (#59), well, isn't going to win you many games on its own. The Utah recipe hasn't required that over the last few years. Utah's offense was flat out bad last year, ranked 76th in Beta_Rank and that was with Travis Wilson and Devonte Booker. Thus far the Utah offense is probably about even with last year, 59th and given the sample size 'meh', They didn't play all that well against BYU. BYU has a good defense, but Utah got bailed out with a defensive touchdown. Putting up 34 against San Jose State is good, but only two Pac12 schools had defenses that bad last year.

Utah is pretty good at avoiding negative drives (drives<3.33333yds per play) and that matters a lot for an offense that isn't very explosive and doesn't generate a lot of yards per play value. They are also decent at keeping the defense from making plus plays (sacks, turnovers, TFLs, pass deflections).

Utah is not very good at play efficiency, both this year and last year. Utah has been horrific at drive efficiency, turning drives into points beyond the other three measurables. I expect this to change over the year as this is where placekicking shows up and Utah still has a phenomenal kicker. Utah isn't explosive on offense, but then that isn't the blueprint.

USC's defense (#101) is off to a terrible start, but playing the ghost of Lane Kiffens past and Stanford will absolutely do that to you. USC's problem is that the model doesn't think Alabama or Stanford's offenses are that good, yet, but I expect that will change as the year goes on and they look better against good competition. 

USC's defense should force Utah to grind it against them. The model is underrating this defense due to it being early season so I am not confident in any of the predictions simply because of how early it is. USC has the talent to stifle another mediocre Utah offense.