Arizona Offense vs UCLA Defense
Rankings reflect ranking percentile for Offense or Defense vs NCAA
Chart reflect ranking percentile for Offense or Defense vs NCAA
0 is worst unit in NCAA 100 is best
Lets say its 2005 or 2006 and you are a smart college football fan. Brent Musberger comes on your TV to lead you into the game of the week on ABC; West Virginia at Penn State. Forget the whole Paterno thing and that Musberger is a creepy Bob Knight lover, but you, being the smart football lover you are, are positively giddy to see Rich Rodriguez's offense play Tom Bradley's defense.
This match up isn't nearly as sexy as that fantasy and it is not because Tom Bradley's Wells Fargo building loan is still processing on his West Coast Death Star.
0 is worst unit in NCAA 100 is best
Until Weeks 6-7 the model outputs are directional, but useful
Lets say its 2005 or 2006 and you are a smart college football fan. Brent Musberger comes on your TV to lead you into the game of the week on ABC; West Virginia at Penn State. Forget the whole Paterno thing and that Musberger is a creepy Bob Knight lover, but you, being the smart football lover you are, are positively giddy to see Rich Rodriguez's offense play Tom Bradley's defense.
This match up isn't nearly as sexy as that fantasy and it is not because Tom Bradley's Wells Fargo building loan is still processing on his West Coast Death Star.
The Arizona offense (#27) is hovering in the new Rich Rodriguez sweet spot, good, but not great. Do not let the ranking fool you, look at the distance from the very best Offensive scores. The new normal comprises great performances against bad teams and bad performances against good teams. The offense played better than expected against a Washington defense that still hasn't played up to its talent level or the expectations it carried into the season, but take a moment and remove Brandon Dawkins from that game. Arizona desperately needs another performance like that from Dawkins. Arizona's receivers still don't have the talent to get open in man against a defense like this. Dawkins has to play well and put up some numbers with his legs for this to work for the Wildcats, also not having JJ Taylor or maybe even Nick Wilson is not exactly optimal.
Arizona's offense is excellent at Play Efficiency and the numbers have only improved with Dawkins at the helm. Arizona puts up great yards per play numbers controlling for their opponents. They also are very good at Explosive Drives and avoiding Negative Drives. Arizona profiles well on the per play measurables, just like they did last year.
Arizona is bad, pretty darn bad, at Drive Efficiency, and that matters quite a bit because the biggest things you can do to improve as an offense are improve Drive Efficiency or Explosiveness. Arizona isn't a team that goes three and out very often, but they do stall on a lot of drives and their 3rd down and D-plus metrics support that. UCLA is going to get pressure on Arizona without blitzing and Dawkins is going to have to use his legs to keep Arizona going.
Arizona's offense is excellent at Play Efficiency and the numbers have only improved with Dawkins at the helm. Arizona puts up great yards per play numbers controlling for their opponents. They also are very good at Explosive Drives and avoiding Negative Drives. Arizona profiles well on the per play measurables, just like they did last year.
Arizona is bad, pretty darn bad, at Drive Efficiency, and that matters quite a bit because the biggest things you can do to improve as an offense are improve Drive Efficiency or Explosiveness. Arizona isn't a team that goes three and out very often, but they do stall on a lot of drives and their 3rd down and D-plus metrics support that. UCLA is going to get pressure on Arizona without blitzing and Dawkins is going to have to use his legs to keep Arizona going.
UCLA's defense (#10) if you look at the chart up there, is a lot like Arizona's offense in what they are good at, but, well, much better. Bradley has removed the UCLA discount that has been around for awhile, despite all the stars and highly paid coaches. They played really well against Stanford and pretty well against A&M. This defense has the looks of something scary if they can clean up a few things.
UCLA is great at Play Efficiency, containing Explosive Drives, and creating Negative Drives. They make you march the field to score points. They don't let you put up big yards per play numbers. They put you in 3 and outs. They are also pretty good on 3rd down.
UCLA is great at Play Efficiency, containing Explosive Drives, and creating Negative Drives. They make you march the field to score points. They don't let you put up big yards per play numbers. They put you in 3 and outs. They are also pretty good on 3rd down.
UCLA isn't very good at Drive Efficiency. When they have given up points it is because teams have marched down the field on them. They also haven't really connected on D-plus plays, which I would expect to change over the season. UCLA cleans these two areas up and they could be in for an absurdly good season.
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