Arizona Offense & Arizona Defense
Chart reflect ranking percentile for Offense or Defense vs NCAA
0 is worst unit in NCAA 100 is best
So, in August, who had Arizona going 0 for the Pac-12 this season? I didn't either, but that is what we are staring down the barrel of. As of this week's results Arizona's only chance to be favored is when Oregon State comes calling and Oregon State is improving under Gary Anderson, while Arizona is plummeting under Rodriguez.
Some quick thoughts on Arizona overall:
I am going write this mostly as an optimist who thinks Arizona needs to commit to playing younger players and rebuilding. I am not going to go through who is having a great year and why, but rather who is getting playing time right now and who should if you commit to a rebuild.
I don't think the team has quit on Rodriguez; which means that I think Arizona is playing hard, but is untalented and, at times, not well coached.
I don't think that Rodriguez has committed to a rebuild yet. Arizona is still playing too many walk-ons and not doing nearly enough rotation of young guys into the line up for this to be chalked up the kind of player development seasons Colorado is now benefiting from and Oregon State is in the midst of. Player rotations/substitutions have been a major, MAJOR, problem during Rodriguez's entire tenure and Rodriguez is aware of it, has commented on his not doing a good job of it, and has yet to do anything about it. Rodriguez doesn't seem to be able to fix it so he needs to delegate this to his staff with a clear directive.
Everyone thinks Arizona has a recruiting problem on defense. Sure, but Arizona has a player development problem across the entire program and there are major trouble spots on offensive recruiting too. I am not going to fall into the typical Arizona fan trap of our "awesome" offense and "inept" defense; that is partly true, but it is too simple a narrative for the litany of problems the data shows on this team.
A couple of my rules of thumb:
I evaluate Power 5 teams and Notre Dame with a view that their Offensive or Defensive Beta_Rank should not be below 65. Basically I am saying that with all the immense advantages that Power 5 schools have over Group of 5 schools, that being ranked below 65 is a complete embarrassment and being ranked 30 isn't something to take a bow over, since it is basically average when compared across like programs; this is true in recruiting too. You play 9 games out of the year against teams from your conference and 3 potentially against Group of 5 schools. You had better be good relative to Power 5 programs if you play in a Power 5 league.
Recruiting rankings are not destiny, but they are highly correlated with performance. In other words we live in a world where Scooby Wright was a great college football player and teams that recruit highly rated classes go on to perform better than teams that do not (there is no simultaneity issue here so causality is easy). Neither of these ideas are actually contradictory. You can hold them in your head at the same time and not lose consciousness. So, I have no idea if an individual player's ranking is perfectly accurate regarding his ceiling and propensity to reach it, but I don't treat it that way. It is just an imperfect, but more often than not, accurate signal. People who like their team's recruiting ranking tend to fall on one side and people who don't on the other. For a program like Arizona identifying which 2-3 stars have a Pac-12 ceiling and fit your system, and then developing them, is crucial and something that, overall, Mike Stoops and staff were actually pretty good at.
Telling the difference between player development and recruiting in college football is imperfect. This isn't MLB where you have minor league data and extensive scouting reports, but good staffs routinely get more out of their players than bad staffs; all recruiting being equal and I think that shows up in the numbers of players that outperform or meet their recruiting rankings and projections.
I will also try, but not always succeed, to pull my punches when discussing individual players, they are not getting paid for this after all, but I will be direct when talking about position groups and I am going to provide very direct assessments of coaches.
The Arizona offense (#33) is basically the Brandon Dawkins show at this point. The positive rating that Arizona has on Play Efficiency, Drive Efficiency, and avoiding Negative Drives is basically a reflection of what Dawkins, and to a lesser extent, Tate have cobbled together. I hope we can all agree to stop the 2016 Khalil Tate hype after the USC game. I am not saying that Tate goes back in the box. That ship has sailed, but he seems much more effective coming in as relief for a gassed Dawkins than starting. I also think people are missing a connection on the fact that both Dawkins and Tate are regularly gassed back there; the offense isn't very good and they are being forced to carry it. Dawkins and Tate are running on designed runs, run pass options, straight pass plays. They scramble for more yards behind the line of scrimmage than most QB's will pick up all year. I think Arizona should commit to a full rebuild at this point and accept whatever losses come with that, but I don't think that means blowing off the fact that Dawkins has two years of eligibility remaining and just turning this over to Tate. Dawkins is dynamic. In two years, when Arizona could be good again, Dawkins playing in his senior season with basically two seasons experience could be the kind of offense that Arizona hasn't had since Matt Scott was at the helm; which isn't to say that Tate might not beat him out at some point, but it won't be this year. Rotate them both this season; try to lessen the number of shots each one is taking and let them fight it out in the offseason. Solomon should complete his classes and move on as a grad transfer and also apply for a medical redshirt. Some people are not going to like me saying that, but I think that is the reality at this point. Solomon is going to fit a lot better into an offense where the QB's ability to run the ball isn't the only thing keeping the unit's head above water.
The rest of the position groups help explain Arizona's horrific Drive Efficiency number. Dawkins/Tate will need some running back help in 2018 and there is little to be done in the remainder of this season on that front. The coaching staff has absurdly little confidence in Zach Green and he has the same eligibility as Nick Wilson anyway, that said, it makes no sense to not try to see what you can turn him into with more regular playing time. With J.J. Taylor's injury there are no young backs to spend snaps developing so Green isn't taking valuable development snaps from anyone. They should also consider running more of the power spread sets Rodriguez used to run with Owen Schmitt at West Virginia. Jamadre Cobb isn't the answer to all the team's ills, but the offensive line isn't giving anyone enough support at this point and an extra blocker could be the difference in the backfield surviving the season. Since QB and RB are essentially the only areas where Rodriguez has consistently amassed Pac-12 level talent; it is critical that they stay upright.
The offensive line is sort of committed to rebuilding, but it might timed really wrong vs. where the rest of the team is at eligibility wise. Freddie Tagaloa should rotate snaps if he is healthy enough to play. The line seems young and inexperienced, but with Friekh, Alsadek, and de Beer as juniors the team should be very committed to rotating players in this year and next behind those guys when they can and playing younger players if it is close. You don't want to be graduating three starters off the 2017 offensive line. Keenan Walker and Michael Eletise are redshirting this year, and that makes sense for lineman, but next year they should step in and start. I am not saying this, like I have some sort of special insight into how the offensive linemen are practicing. I don't, but that is what you do when you are rebuilding. You play your guys with the highest ceiling and let them get as much game experience as possible.
Lots of Arizona fans have the impression that experience and talent are the same thing when it comes to the WR corps and that is clearly not the case. No matter who has been playing QB this season, and last season too, the QB's are all holding the ball too long looking for the receivers to get open. Nowhere on offense has the staff so clearly failed to identify and recruit players with Pac-12 level talent. This is going to sound really harsh, but there might be one wide out that would start for another Pac-12 program on the roster. If you are going to argue with me that Oregon State might start some of these guys then you need to think about the premise of your argument and whether it is worth making. Arizona has one outside receiver this season with any experience in the program. The other two on the roster are a JC player that Arizona flipped at the last minute from Marshall (MARSHALL!!!!) and a two star recruit who transferred from an AAC team and neither of them are even playing right now (injury, transfer year). There is some potential amongst the young slot receivers and Dawkins is good enough in the air to get them the ball and good enough on the ground to force the opposition into a zone so they can keep eyes on the QB. Arizona isn't talented enough right now to get open against man coverage and nobody respects the WR's with deep cushions that would allow a short passing game to develop. If you go back and watch the parts of the Washington game where the offense had it going; it was Dawkins keying things up with his feet and putting the defense on its heels and then following it up with completions while the defense kept a wary eye on him.
The tight ends actually seem like they can play, but Rodriguez has gotten a bit rigid in his offensive coaching of late. The team should test out some power sets with Wood and Cobb on the field to try to keep Dawkins and Tate alive back there.
The coaches should have a big slice of humble pie too and review Arizona's passing concepts. I don't care about what everyone thinks Rodriguez's offensive principles are. The only year at Arizona where he has run the ball more than he has thrown it was the 2013 year with Denker at QB. This team throws the ball about 55% of the time. What they are doing isn't working all that well and I think things could improve if Arizona takes the off weak and incorporates some elements of the more sophisticated passing spread teams. Arizona's offensive rating is about the same as it was last year in Beta_Rank (#27) and is nowhere near as good as they were when Rodriguez had Stoops's offensive players and almost all the advanced stats had the offense in the top 10. Just to be clear ranking in the 25-35 range nationally and in the middle of the Pac-12 isn't going to be good enough for Arizona to compete. Rodriguez hangs his hat on his offense and his grade at Arizona this year, and every year since 2012, is a big fat C.
Arizona's defense (#96) has fallen back nearly to the level they were at last year where they finished #108. I like the hires and I think Yates could get something done, but this defense is still playing way too many walk-ons for this to be a rebuild. I get it you want to win now, but in almost every case the ceiling of a walk-on is lower than a player offered a scholarship out of high school. Walk-ons are usually high motor guys who are maximizing limited talent. Arizona needs to commit to giving some playing time in rotation to all the guys sitting behind the walk-ons on the depth chart. Sure the walk-ons are winning practice, but that is short term thinking. This defense isn't good at anything right now, not Drive Efficiency, Play Efficiency, Explosive Drives, or Negative Drives. You may as well play some young guys who could improve over time.
The defensive line is exhibit A of this where we now have two of the three spots where walk-ons would be considered the starter. I am not on the Marcus Griffen hype train. I really am not, but it is time for him to get significant rotation time so he can gain valuable game experience, you might as well roll Finton Connelly out there too. Next year Justin Holt should get significant reps. This isn't about winning now, dig in and root for player development.
The linebacking corps has a lot of young players, but the higher ceiling recruits are in their first year and should definitely redshirt for their development. Kahi Neves should be significantly in the rotation next year. This season playing Michael Barton or John Kenny significantly seems like a waste at this point, but there just isn't anybody to push in there this year, which is both a bummer and an indictment of recruiting.
0 is worst unit in NCAA 100 is best
So, in August, who had Arizona going 0 for the Pac-12 this season? I didn't either, but that is what we are staring down the barrel of. As of this week's results Arizona's only chance to be favored is when Oregon State comes calling and Oregon State is improving under Gary Anderson, while Arizona is plummeting under Rodriguez.
Some quick thoughts on Arizona overall:
I am going write this mostly as an optimist who thinks Arizona needs to commit to playing younger players and rebuilding. I am not going to go through who is having a great year and why, but rather who is getting playing time right now and who should if you commit to a rebuild.
I don't think the team has quit on Rodriguez; which means that I think Arizona is playing hard, but is untalented and, at times, not well coached.
I don't think that Rodriguez has committed to a rebuild yet. Arizona is still playing too many walk-ons and not doing nearly enough rotation of young guys into the line up for this to be chalked up the kind of player development seasons Colorado is now benefiting from and Oregon State is in the midst of. Player rotations/substitutions have been a major, MAJOR, problem during Rodriguez's entire tenure and Rodriguez is aware of it, has commented on his not doing a good job of it, and has yet to do anything about it. Rodriguez doesn't seem to be able to fix it so he needs to delegate this to his staff with a clear directive.
Everyone thinks Arizona has a recruiting problem on defense. Sure, but Arizona has a player development problem across the entire program and there are major trouble spots on offensive recruiting too. I am not going to fall into the typical Arizona fan trap of our "awesome" offense and "inept" defense; that is partly true, but it is too simple a narrative for the litany of problems the data shows on this team.
Week 7 2016 Pac12 Beta_Rank |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | School | Record | Pred_Record | Beta_Rank | O_Rnk | O_Score | D_Rnk | D_Score | Spcl_Tm_Rnk | Spcl_Tm_Score | Sched_Rnk | Sched_Strength | Record_Rnk | Record_Strength |
| 3 | Washington | 5 - 0 | 5 - 0 | 1.958 | 7 | 1.5831 | 13 | -0.3809 | 75 | 0.00544 | 98 | -0.35297 | 73 | -1.4119 |
| 5 | Colorado | 4 - 2 | 4 - 2 | 1.8098 | 24 | 1.0368 | 4 | -0.77502 | 69 | 0.0019841 | 14 | 0.61884 | 27 | 0.1206 |
| 7 | Washington State | 4 - 1 | 5 - 0 | 1.7101 | 10 | 1.4143 | 17 | -0.29183 | 61 | -0.004 | 37 | 0.26258 | 20 | 0.33997 |
| 20 | USC | 4 - 3 | 5 - 2 | 0.97334 | 18 | 1.0874 | 42 | 0.13025 | 31 | -0.016107 | 7 | 0.72663 | 7 | 1.4018 |
| 24 | UCLA | 3 - 4 | 6 - 1 | 0.80777 | 69 | 0.34879 | 9 | -0.47131 | 90 | 0.012327 | 18 | 0.55509 | 52 | -0.58652 |
| 37 | Oregon | 1 - 4 | 1 - 4 | 0.36503 | 6 | 1.5932 | 116 | 1.2333 | 57 | -0.0051087 | 1 | 1.295 | 29 | 0.082328 |
| 46 | Stanford | 4 - 2 | 2 - 4 | 0.28689 | 75 | 0.29839 | 33 | 0.0566 | 2 | -0.045163 | 2 | 1.208 | 5 | 2.3698 |
| 59 | Arizona State | 4 - 2 | 1 - 5 | 0.12385 | 59 | 0.45465 | 58 | 0.3254 | 74 | 0.0053626 | 9 | 0.71806 | 12 | 0.82122 |
| 60 | California | 3 - 3 | 5 - 1 | 0.11074 | 12 | 1.285 | 113 | 1.196 | 25 | -0.021794 | 71 | -0.072975 | 45 | -0.46408 |
| 63 | Utah | 5 - 1 | 4 - 2 | 0.07321 | 87 | 0.11715 | 34 | 0.062451 | 27 | -0.018506 | 74 | -0.085871 | 47 | -0.51831 |
| 64 | Oregon State | 1 - 4 | 1 - 4 | 0.026934 | 77 | 0.2844 | 54 | 0.27065 | 35 | -0.013189 | 15 | 0.59637 | 28 | 0.08895 |
| 69 | Arizona | 1 - 5 | 1 - 5 | -0.067306 | 33 | 0.78794 | 96 | 0.82247 | 120 | 0.032777 | 16 | 0.57888 | 58 | -0.68604 |
A couple of my rules of thumb:
I evaluate Power 5 teams and Notre Dame with a view that their Offensive or Defensive Beta_Rank should not be below 65. Basically I am saying that with all the immense advantages that Power 5 schools have over Group of 5 schools, that being ranked below 65 is a complete embarrassment and being ranked 30 isn't something to take a bow over, since it is basically average when compared across like programs; this is true in recruiting too. You play 9 games out of the year against teams from your conference and 3 potentially against Group of 5 schools. You had better be good relative to Power 5 programs if you play in a Power 5 league.
Recruiting rankings are not destiny, but they are highly correlated with performance. In other words we live in a world where Scooby Wright was a great college football player and teams that recruit highly rated classes go on to perform better than teams that do not (there is no simultaneity issue here so causality is easy). Neither of these ideas are actually contradictory. You can hold them in your head at the same time and not lose consciousness. So, I have no idea if an individual player's ranking is perfectly accurate regarding his ceiling and propensity to reach it, but I don't treat it that way. It is just an imperfect, but more often than not, accurate signal. People who like their team's recruiting ranking tend to fall on one side and people who don't on the other. For a program like Arizona identifying which 2-3 stars have a Pac-12 ceiling and fit your system, and then developing them, is crucial and something that, overall, Mike Stoops and staff were actually pretty good at.
Telling the difference between player development and recruiting in college football is imperfect. This isn't MLB where you have minor league data and extensive scouting reports, but good staffs routinely get more out of their players than bad staffs; all recruiting being equal and I think that shows up in the numbers of players that outperform or meet their recruiting rankings and projections.
I will also try, but not always succeed, to pull my punches when discussing individual players, they are not getting paid for this after all, but I will be direct when talking about position groups and I am going to provide very direct assessments of coaches.
Week 7 2016 Pac12 Beta_Rank Offense |
||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | School | O_Score | Drive_Eff_Rnk | O_Drive_Eff | Play_Eff_Rnk | O_Play Eff | Exp_Rnk | O_Exp_Drives | Negative_Rnk | O_Neg_Drives | Sched_Rnk | Sched_Strength |
| 6 | Oregon | 1.5932 | 15 | 0.68091 | 9 | 0.23837 | 10 | 0.7134 | 4 | -0.039448 | 1 | -0.2101 |
| 7 | Washington | 1.5831 | 38 | 0.41321 | 7 | 0.24853 | 1 | 1.0267 | 17 | -0.1053 | 109 | 0.7193 |
| 10 | Washington State | 1.4143 | 7 | 0.93207 | 41 | 0.15101 | 47 | 0.43132 | 15 | -0.10007 | 50 | 0.38582 |
| 12 | California | 1.285 | 14 | 0.69936 | 47 | 0.13961 | 21 | 0.60438 | 25 | -0.15835 | 60 | 0.43342 |
| 18 | USC | 1.0874 | 78 | 0.15365 | 19 | 0.20646 | 22 | 0.60233 | 1 | 0.12503 | 11 | -0.00824 |
| 24 | Colorado | 1.0368 | 34 | 0.45105 | 11 | 0.23279 | 29 | 0.5374 | 29 | -0.18446 | 47 | 0.32812 |
| 33 | Arizona | 0.78794 | 93 | 0.076108 | 5 | 0.25647 | 30 | 0.52428 | 9 | -0.068921 | 26 | 0.16722 |
| 59 | Arizona State | 0.45465 | 22 | 0.59753 | 76 | 0.10346 | 84 | 0.25035 | 107 | -0.4967 | 53 | 0.39725 |
| 69 | UCLA | 0.34879 | 103 | -0.0094663 | 71 | 0.10947 | 50 | 0.41529 | 26 | -0.1665 | 41 | 0.2996 |
| 75 | Stanford | 0.29839 | 98 | 0.033925 | 32 | 0.17541 | 94 | 0.18206 | 14 | -0.093013 | 3 | -0.15031 |
| 77 | Oregon State | 0.2844 | 37 | 0.41356 | 82 | 0.098651 | 81 | 0.25678 | 105 | -0.48459 | 16 | 0.02926 |
| 87 | Utah | 0.11715 | 119 | -0.16477 | 100 | 0.071994 | 78 | 0.2687 | 6 | -0.058786 | 96 | 0.61422 |
The Arizona offense (#33) is basically the Brandon Dawkins show at this point. The positive rating that Arizona has on Play Efficiency, Drive Efficiency, and avoiding Negative Drives is basically a reflection of what Dawkins, and to a lesser extent, Tate have cobbled together. I hope we can all agree to stop the 2016 Khalil Tate hype after the USC game. I am not saying that Tate goes back in the box. That ship has sailed, but he seems much more effective coming in as relief for a gassed Dawkins than starting. I also think people are missing a connection on the fact that both Dawkins and Tate are regularly gassed back there; the offense isn't very good and they are being forced to carry it. Dawkins and Tate are running on designed runs, run pass options, straight pass plays. They scramble for more yards behind the line of scrimmage than most QB's will pick up all year. I think Arizona should commit to a full rebuild at this point and accept whatever losses come with that, but I don't think that means blowing off the fact that Dawkins has two years of eligibility remaining and just turning this over to Tate. Dawkins is dynamic. In two years, when Arizona could be good again, Dawkins playing in his senior season with basically two seasons experience could be the kind of offense that Arizona hasn't had since Matt Scott was at the helm; which isn't to say that Tate might not beat him out at some point, but it won't be this year. Rotate them both this season; try to lessen the number of shots each one is taking and let them fight it out in the offseason. Solomon should complete his classes and move on as a grad transfer and also apply for a medical redshirt. Some people are not going to like me saying that, but I think that is the reality at this point. Solomon is going to fit a lot better into an offense where the QB's ability to run the ball isn't the only thing keeping the unit's head above water.
The rest of the position groups help explain Arizona's horrific Drive Efficiency number. Dawkins/Tate will need some running back help in 2018 and there is little to be done in the remainder of this season on that front. The coaching staff has absurdly little confidence in Zach Green and he has the same eligibility as Nick Wilson anyway, that said, it makes no sense to not try to see what you can turn him into with more regular playing time. With J.J. Taylor's injury there are no young backs to spend snaps developing so Green isn't taking valuable development snaps from anyone. They should also consider running more of the power spread sets Rodriguez used to run with Owen Schmitt at West Virginia. Jamadre Cobb isn't the answer to all the team's ills, but the offensive line isn't giving anyone enough support at this point and an extra blocker could be the difference in the backfield surviving the season. Since QB and RB are essentially the only areas where Rodriguez has consistently amassed Pac-12 level talent; it is critical that they stay upright.
The offensive line is sort of committed to rebuilding, but it might timed really wrong vs. where the rest of the team is at eligibility wise. Freddie Tagaloa should rotate snaps if he is healthy enough to play. The line seems young and inexperienced, but with Friekh, Alsadek, and de Beer as juniors the team should be very committed to rotating players in this year and next behind those guys when they can and playing younger players if it is close. You don't want to be graduating three starters off the 2017 offensive line. Keenan Walker and Michael Eletise are redshirting this year, and that makes sense for lineman, but next year they should step in and start. I am not saying this, like I have some sort of special insight into how the offensive linemen are practicing. I don't, but that is what you do when you are rebuilding. You play your guys with the highest ceiling and let them get as much game experience as possible.
Lots of Arizona fans have the impression that experience and talent are the same thing when it comes to the WR corps and that is clearly not the case. No matter who has been playing QB this season, and last season too, the QB's are all holding the ball too long looking for the receivers to get open. Nowhere on offense has the staff so clearly failed to identify and recruit players with Pac-12 level talent. This is going to sound really harsh, but there might be one wide out that would start for another Pac-12 program on the roster. If you are going to argue with me that Oregon State might start some of these guys then you need to think about the premise of your argument and whether it is worth making. Arizona has one outside receiver this season with any experience in the program. The other two on the roster are a JC player that Arizona flipped at the last minute from Marshall (MARSHALL!!!!) and a two star recruit who transferred from an AAC team and neither of them are even playing right now (injury, transfer year). There is some potential amongst the young slot receivers and Dawkins is good enough in the air to get them the ball and good enough on the ground to force the opposition into a zone so they can keep eyes on the QB. Arizona isn't talented enough right now to get open against man coverage and nobody respects the WR's with deep cushions that would allow a short passing game to develop. If you go back and watch the parts of the Washington game where the offense had it going; it was Dawkins keying things up with his feet and putting the defense on its heels and then following it up with completions while the defense kept a wary eye on him.
The tight ends actually seem like they can play, but Rodriguez has gotten a bit rigid in his offensive coaching of late. The team should test out some power sets with Wood and Cobb on the field to try to keep Dawkins and Tate alive back there.
The coaches should have a big slice of humble pie too and review Arizona's passing concepts. I don't care about what everyone thinks Rodriguez's offensive principles are. The only year at Arizona where he has run the ball more than he has thrown it was the 2013 year with Denker at QB. This team throws the ball about 55% of the time. What they are doing isn't working all that well and I think things could improve if Arizona takes the off weak and incorporates some elements of the more sophisticated passing spread teams. Arizona's offensive rating is about the same as it was last year in Beta_Rank (#27) and is nowhere near as good as they were when Rodriguez had Stoops's offensive players and almost all the advanced stats had the offense in the top 10. Just to be clear ranking in the 25-35 range nationally and in the middle of the Pac-12 isn't going to be good enough for Arizona to compete. Rodriguez hangs his hat on his offense and his grade at Arizona this year, and every year since 2012, is a big fat C.
Week 7 2016 Pac12 Beta_Rank Defense |
||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | School | D_Score | Drive_Eff_Rnk | D_Drive_Eff | Play_Eff_Rnk | D_Play Eff | Exp_Rnk | D_Exp_Drives | Negative_Rnk | D_Neg_Drives | Sched_Rnk | Sched_Strength |
| 4 | Colorado | -0.77502 | 2 | -0.4314 | 15 | 0.05127 | 17 | 0.07337 | 24 | -0.46821 | 5 | 0.94697 |
| 9 | UCLA | -0.47131 | 67 | 0.2962 | 1 | -0.027304 | 7 | -0.031613 | 2 | -0.70868 | 20 | 0.69613 |
| 13 | Washington | -0.3809 | 19 | -0.040047 | 7 | 0.011367 | 33 | 0.17101 | 16 | -0.52326 | 67 | 0.437 |
| 17 | Washington State | -0.29183 | 12 | -0.12179 | 38 | 0.093291 | 44 | 0.22795 | 21 | -0.49128 | 19 | 0.70092 |
| 33 | Stanford | 0.0566 | 52 | 0.18472 | 14 | 0.044324 | 43 | 0.21637 | 53 | -0.38875 | 10 | 0.85636 |
| 34 | Utah | 0.062451 | 30 | 0.028367 | 50 | 0.10792 | 67 | 0.32964 | 46 | -0.40348 | 39 | 0.54266 |
| 42 | USC | 0.13025 | 99 | 0.52204 | 25 | 0.074271 | 11 | -0.00014577 | 27 | -0.465 | 45 | 0.51078 |
| 54 | Oregon State | 0.27065 | 98 | 0.5089 | 30 | 0.081264 | 20 | 0.088364 | 43 | -0.40787 | 17 | 0.7449 |
| 58 | Arizona State | 0.3254 | 78 | 0.39632 | 79 | 0.14747 | 65 | 0.31898 | 13 | -0.53736 | 4 | 0.99563 |
| 96 | Arizona | 0.82247 | 121 | 0.70134 | 68 | 0.13594 | 74 | 0.37729 | 50 | -0.3921 | 16 | 0.7461 |
| 113 | California | 1.196 | 90 | 0.46574 | 122 | 0.23936 | 106 | 0.61377 | 115 | -0.12282 | 81 | 0.36044 |
| 116 | Oregon | 1.2333 | 127 | 0.83361 | 71 | 0.13774 | 94 | 0.52631 | 86 | -0.2643 | 1 | 1.0855 |
Arizona's defense (#96) has fallen back nearly to the level they were at last year where they finished #108. I like the hires and I think Yates could get something done, but this defense is still playing way too many walk-ons for this to be a rebuild. I get it you want to win now, but in almost every case the ceiling of a walk-on is lower than a player offered a scholarship out of high school. Walk-ons are usually high motor guys who are maximizing limited talent. Arizona needs to commit to giving some playing time in rotation to all the guys sitting behind the walk-ons on the depth chart. Sure the walk-ons are winning practice, but that is short term thinking. This defense isn't good at anything right now, not Drive Efficiency, Play Efficiency, Explosive Drives, or Negative Drives. You may as well play some young guys who could improve over time.
The defensive line is exhibit A of this where we now have two of the three spots where walk-ons would be considered the starter. I am not on the Marcus Griffen hype train. I really am not, but it is time for him to get significant rotation time so he can gain valuable game experience, you might as well roll Finton Connelly out there too. Next year Justin Holt should get significant reps. This isn't about winning now, dig in and root for player development.
The linebacking corps has a lot of young players, but the higher ceiling recruits are in their first year and should definitely redshirt for their development. Kahi Neves should be significantly in the rotation next year. This season playing Michael Barton or John Kenny significantly seems like a waste at this point, but there just isn't anybody to push in there this year, which is both a bummer and an indictment of recruiting.
The secondary is playing quite a few younger playerss and has a bus load of young freshmen waiting in the wings for next year too. We are already seeing Mariscal play and Brewer should get some time too at safety. At corner we have seen more than a few young players start the season with an immense amount of hype from the coaching staff, struggle, and then disappear off into obscurity. That is bad coaching. Young players are going to struggle, you take the pain now for the payoff down the road; also I would much rather watch Sammy Morrison or Jace Whittaker fail than any of our seniors routinely do it.
There are some positive under the new staff. Casteel did not blitz often in 2015 and the defense really struggled to put on pressure. This team is better at getting to the QB with the blitz, the flip side of that as any ASU fan can tell you; that leaves you open to getting burned by big plays. Arizona has been burned a few times by big plays, but the worst part of the defense is their inability to be consistent. They wouldn't be great or anything if they could be consistent, but they would be a lot better than they are now.
I am not really passing judgement on the new staff with this grade, it is really too soon to judge them, more an ongoing grade for Rodriguez's defense at Arizona. F
Outlook
I hope Arizona fans are mad. I hope they feel like the wool has been lifted from their eyes. The thing that makes me most angry about this is that there are plenty of reports that Rodriguez wanted out of Tucson last year, rather than he was just entertaining offers that he didn't seek out. He would have skated out of town and left a smoking crater in place of a football program and most twitterpated Arizona fans would have probably blamed the new coach. This isn't Michigan where Rodriguez didn't get the time to see through the rebuild. These are fully the fruits of his labors. So be mad. Be mad at Greg Byrne who made this hire and called questions about Rodriguez job security "ridiculous." Byrne has done a lot of good for Arizona sports and raised a lot of money, but his football hire has nosedived this program and there is no one else responsible but Rodriguez and the man who hired him. Byrne is also responsible for the raises and extensions that make Rodriguez so difficult to fire.
But also take a deep breath. Rodriguez made wholesale changes when he couldn't jump ship and seems committed to a rebuild; at least on defense. He has recruited pretty well at QB, RB, and even on the OL and his new defensive staff was hired with recruiting in mind. All of that is a positive and reason for optimism. I think an attitude of skepticism is probably the right attitude to take after you get done being mad. I think Rodriguez is a smart coach and has made some good changes. Let's see how they work out, but be skeptical because the coaching staff's track record at Arizona isn't very good on many of these issues.
Be skeptical about the sunshine on this recruiting class. It is probably going to land somewhere in the #25-30 range and that isn't anything to take a bow over at a Power 5 program. Finishing in that range means that Arizona is going to need to develop some 2-3 star players and you shouldn't believe they can do it until you see it with this staff. Be skeptical about the fact that Arizona isn't recruiting enough outside receievrs, STILL, and that and player development mean it's ok to wonder about whether Tony Dews should keep his job. Be skeptical about Rodriguez keeping the play calling duties, because some of the horrendous offensive Drive Efficiency rating is on him and some of his poor play calling, but be willing to accept a brutal 2016 and bad 2017 if you conclude the staff is actually committed to rebuilding and changing some of their thinking.
It comes down to the fact the Byrne isn't firing Rodriguez until the end of next year at the earliest so you might as well buckle in and see where this goes. If it looks like the staff is flubbing the rebuild next year there is no one who will relish bombarding Greg Byrne's inbox more than I will with calls for a coaching change. The email I sent in 2011 making a case not to hire Rodriguez didn't make a dent and everyone likes to say "I told you so."
There are some positive under the new staff. Casteel did not blitz often in 2015 and the defense really struggled to put on pressure. This team is better at getting to the QB with the blitz, the flip side of that as any ASU fan can tell you; that leaves you open to getting burned by big plays. Arizona has been burned a few times by big plays, but the worst part of the defense is their inability to be consistent. They wouldn't be great or anything if they could be consistent, but they would be a lot better than they are now.
I am not really passing judgement on the new staff with this grade, it is really too soon to judge them, more an ongoing grade for Rodriguez's defense at Arizona. F
Outlook
I hope Arizona fans are mad. I hope they feel like the wool has been lifted from their eyes. The thing that makes me most angry about this is that there are plenty of reports that Rodriguez wanted out of Tucson last year, rather than he was just entertaining offers that he didn't seek out. He would have skated out of town and left a smoking crater in place of a football program and most twitterpated Arizona fans would have probably blamed the new coach. This isn't Michigan where Rodriguez didn't get the time to see through the rebuild. These are fully the fruits of his labors. So be mad. Be mad at Greg Byrne who made this hire and called questions about Rodriguez job security "ridiculous." Byrne has done a lot of good for Arizona sports and raised a lot of money, but his football hire has nosedived this program and there is no one else responsible but Rodriguez and the man who hired him. Byrne is also responsible for the raises and extensions that make Rodriguez so difficult to fire.
But also take a deep breath. Rodriguez made wholesale changes when he couldn't jump ship and seems committed to a rebuild; at least on defense. He has recruited pretty well at QB, RB, and even on the OL and his new defensive staff was hired with recruiting in mind. All of that is a positive and reason for optimism. I think an attitude of skepticism is probably the right attitude to take after you get done being mad. I think Rodriguez is a smart coach and has made some good changes. Let's see how they work out, but be skeptical because the coaching staff's track record at Arizona isn't very good on many of these issues.
Be skeptical about the sunshine on this recruiting class. It is probably going to land somewhere in the #25-30 range and that isn't anything to take a bow over at a Power 5 program. Finishing in that range means that Arizona is going to need to develop some 2-3 star players and you shouldn't believe they can do it until you see it with this staff. Be skeptical about the fact that Arizona isn't recruiting enough outside receievrs, STILL, and that and player development mean it's ok to wonder about whether Tony Dews should keep his job. Be skeptical about Rodriguez keeping the play calling duties, because some of the horrendous offensive Drive Efficiency rating is on him and some of his poor play calling, but be willing to accept a brutal 2016 and bad 2017 if you conclude the staff is actually committed to rebuilding and changing some of their thinking.
It comes down to the fact the Byrne isn't firing Rodriguez until the end of next year at the earliest so you might as well buckle in and see where this goes. If it looks like the staff is flubbing the rebuild next year there is no one who will relish bombarding Greg Byrne's inbox more than I will with calls for a coaching change. The email I sent in 2011 making a case not to hire Rodriguez didn't make a dent and everyone likes to say "I told you so."
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