Arizona's offense was better than average in 2015; which is to say that it was extremely exciting at points (USC, ASU, Utah), borderline comatose at others (Stanford, Washington, stretches of UCLA) and sometimes both at once (Washington State and Colorado). As Bill Connelly noted in his Arizona preview Arizona was often good when they played bad teams and bad when they played good teams.
A story about efficiency
I'll do most of the comparisons using Brian Fremeau's Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) which ranks teams on drives that garner multiple first downs, that start in their deeper own territory and finish deeper in their opponents, build methodical drives, have explosive drives, and on scoring efficiency. Importantly it also adjusts the rankings to reflect the strength of the defenses/offenses faced, which is crucial since everyone on Arizona's schedule got to face Arizona's defense.
2015 Pac12 FEI
| School | FEI Rank | Explosiveness |
| Stanford | 4 | 26 |
| Oregon | 8 | 5 |
| USC | 14 | 29 |
| Cal | 19 | 16 |
| Arizona | 32 | 55 |
| UCLA | 39 | 35 |
| WSU | 46 | 90 |
| ASU | 49 | 44 |
| Utah | 82 | 98 |
| Wash | 103 | 54 |
| OSU | 104 | 105 |
| Colorado | 111 | 108 |
When you adjust for Arizona's schedule Arizona's offensive ranking improves by about 10 places; a reflection of having to face 4 of the top 35 defenses in the Defensive FEI rankings and doing pretty well against two (Utah and USC), OK against UCLA, and left utterly disheveled, confused, and embarrassed by Washington (No. 1 in the D-FEI).
Arizona over-performs in all the measure that make up the FEI except one: explosiveness, which is a measure of drives that averaged 10 yards+ per play. If you watched Arizona last year this will not seem odd to you.
Why Caleb Jones going pro with eligibilty left on the clock explains Arizona's offensive issues
Why Caleb Jones going pro with eligibilty left on the clock explains Arizona's offensive issues
On the face of it Caleb Jones going pro looks like a bad move. He left early and he wasn't even drafted, which never looks partucularly smart, since he could always come back and improve his draft stock next year.
But could he?
Jones is a physical specimen and though not fleet of foot by NFL standards and an indifferent route runner; if you want to get open you can be fast or run clean routes, he could always be counted on to jump or body his way to the ball. The problem for Jones was/is the problem for Arizona: Anu Solomon throws a bad deep ball.
Jones should have been another Juron Criner or Austen Hill, but he did not have Nick Foles or Matt Scott to throw him the ball. He had Solomon and Solomon throws footballs well only in two dimensional space. He simply cannot master passes that go over the top of a corner or safety. These kinds of passes are the ones that would put Jones more on an NFL radar, or at least more in the conversation. He looked at his options for this year: another year of Solomon hitting him 10 yards down the field and then having to fight for extra yards or breaking in Brandon Dawkinsor take a risk and leave. Leaving isn't all that irrational in that situation.
Arizona basketball has a spacing problem, but so does Arizona Football
I love Sean Miller, I do, but his teams have the same achilles heel; shooting. He recruits ultra-athletic players who play lights out D, drive to the bucket, and get drafted very highly, but thus far most of those guys can't shoot jumpers. If you have an entire team of those guys you can have spacing problems; which have been pretty evident for Arizona under Miller. But you can have spacing problems in football too.
Rich Rodriguez likes to call his QB a point guard. He just needs to be able to distribute the ball and occassionally call his own number. In football though the QB is really the only three point shooter, and if he can't shoot threes it can get very crowded in the lane. Solomon's inability to hit deep passes means that safeties are free to play closer to the box and corners can play press, or closer to press, without the worry of getting beat over the top. They also can worry less about the pass option in Arizona's complex run/pass options plays. Arizona also calls a lot, A LOT, of wide receiver screens and slants out of the slot. It suddenly gets very crowded in the running and passing lanes 10 yards in.
Look at Arizona's explossiveness ranking for 2015, 55th. In 2012 with Matt Scott at the helm Arizona's offense ranked at No. 9 in the FEI and No. 18 in explosiveness. You can make an argument that Kadeem Carey had something to do with that, but I would argue that many of the main skill parts of that 2012 team were similar to 2015. Both Carey and Nick Wilson are in constant danger of being caught from behind and Austen Hill was a better version of Caleb Jones, but they are not THAT different. That 2012 team had great spacing and Scott could distribute the ball anywhere.
A world without Jerrard Randall and Jared Baker
I am not saying that Randall is a great QB or that he was somehow the answer, but he played a lot of football last season in place of Solomon; mostly due to injuries, but also due to maddening incompetence on Solomon's part. Randall was Mr. Explosive, and he was always a danger to take off and take it to the house, but how badly would Arizona have ranked last year in explosiveness if Randall hadn't been there? Or Baker?
We might not notice Caleb Jones not being there because nobody put the ball in places for Caleb Jones to be the best Caleb Jones, but we might really miss Randall and Baker.
Rich Rodriguez isn't joking about Brandon Dawkins
I know everybody thinks that the Arizona QB competition is a ploy, but I don't. Rodriguez can be a bit coy about his QBs and often likes to stir up competition conversations, but lets be honest; he played BJ Denker for an entire year. Denker was mostly pretty good, but sometime the offense was putrid and Denker still got the nod every time he was healthy.
But could he?
Jones is a physical specimen and though not fleet of foot by NFL standards and an indifferent route runner; if you want to get open you can be fast or run clean routes, he could always be counted on to jump or body his way to the ball. The problem for Jones was/is the problem for Arizona: Anu Solomon throws a bad deep ball.
Jones should have been another Juron Criner or Austen Hill, but he did not have Nick Foles or Matt Scott to throw him the ball. He had Solomon and Solomon throws footballs well only in two dimensional space. He simply cannot master passes that go over the top of a corner or safety. These kinds of passes are the ones that would put Jones more on an NFL radar, or at least more in the conversation. He looked at his options for this year: another year of Solomon hitting him 10 yards down the field and then having to fight for extra yards or breaking in Brandon Dawkinsor take a risk and leave. Leaving isn't all that irrational in that situation.
Arizona basketball has a spacing problem, but so does Arizona Football
I love Sean Miller, I do, but his teams have the same achilles heel; shooting. He recruits ultra-athletic players who play lights out D, drive to the bucket, and get drafted very highly, but thus far most of those guys can't shoot jumpers. If you have an entire team of those guys you can have spacing problems; which have been pretty evident for Arizona under Miller. But you can have spacing problems in football too.
Rich Rodriguez likes to call his QB a point guard. He just needs to be able to distribute the ball and occassionally call his own number. In football though the QB is really the only three point shooter, and if he can't shoot threes it can get very crowded in the lane. Solomon's inability to hit deep passes means that safeties are free to play closer to the box and corners can play press, or closer to press, without the worry of getting beat over the top. They also can worry less about the pass option in Arizona's complex run/pass options plays. Arizona also calls a lot, A LOT, of wide receiver screens and slants out of the slot. It suddenly gets very crowded in the running and passing lanes 10 yards in.
Look at Arizona's explossiveness ranking for 2015, 55th. In 2012 with Matt Scott at the helm Arizona's offense ranked at No. 9 in the FEI and No. 18 in explosiveness. You can make an argument that Kadeem Carey had something to do with that, but I would argue that many of the main skill parts of that 2012 team were similar to 2015. Both Carey and Nick Wilson are in constant danger of being caught from behind and Austen Hill was a better version of Caleb Jones, but they are not THAT different. That 2012 team had great spacing and Scott could distribute the ball anywhere.
A world without Jerrard Randall and Jared Baker
I am not saying that Randall is a great QB or that he was somehow the answer, but he played a lot of football last season in place of Solomon; mostly due to injuries, but also due to maddening incompetence on Solomon's part. Randall was Mr. Explosive, and he was always a danger to take off and take it to the house, but how badly would Arizona have ranked last year in explosiveness if Randall hadn't been there? Or Baker?
We might not notice Caleb Jones not being there because nobody put the ball in places for Caleb Jones to be the best Caleb Jones, but we might really miss Randall and Baker.
Rich Rodriguez isn't joking about Brandon Dawkins
I know everybody thinks that the Arizona QB competition is a ploy, but I don't. Rodriguez can be a bit coy about his QBs and often likes to stir up competition conversations, but lets be honest; he played BJ Denker for an entire year. Denker was mostly pretty good, but sometime the offense was putrid and Denker still got the nod every time he was healthy.
Meanwhile Solomon got yanked against WSU and Colorado; one OK defense and one horrible defense, and he got yanked for a one dimensional player. In the modern game, a passing game, getting yanked for Jerrard Randall says a lot about how effective you are with your arm; which is not to take anything away from Randall, but I think Rodriguez is finally comfortable with his QB depth and is probably willing to take the growing pains of Dawkins if it improves Arizona's production overall
Which is not to say that the entire season doesn't revolve around the defense not ranking 99th in the Defensive FEI again. Just getting near the 2014 ranking of 32nd probably makes this a 8-9 win team.
Which is not to say that the entire season doesn't revolve around the defense not ranking 99th in the Defensive FEI again. Just getting near the 2014 ranking of 32nd probably makes this a 8-9 win team.
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