Arizona Offense vs Washington Defense
Rankings reflect ranking percentile for Offense or Defense vs NCAA
Smoothed D3.js Radar Chart
Chart reflect ranking percentile for Offense or Defense vs NCAA
0 is worst unit in NCAA 100 is best
Until Weeks 5-6 the model outputs are directional, but useful
The Arizona offense (#25) has really struggled against good defenses since Matt Scott played his last game, which was all the way back in 2012. This was on display fully when Arizona played BYU and the offense managed to look functionally incompetent against a defense that might finish above #30. Arizona fans hope that all changed when Solomon got hurt in practice and Dawkins started in his place and proved a bit of a revelation in actually running a zone read run scheme. Washington will be a significant step up in class from Hawaii, but Dawkins might also be the right man for this job. I don't think Arizona puts any pressure on Washington's defense without the extra dimension of Dawkins legs.
Arizona has been very good thus far in creating Explosive Drives. They have also put up good Play Efficiency numbers and they have been pretty good at avoiding D-plus plays. All of this will be critical vs. Washington, where big plays from Dawkins on the ground could put Washington in a zone, which should be better for Arizona's receivers, who might not be talented enough to get open in man coverage against Washington. If Dawkins can put up big plays with his legs and buy himself some time, that would be very good for Arizona. Last years game was pretty much decided by 4 Arizona turnovers, a fairly random statistical event, but if Arizona turns it over twice that is probably going to doom their chances.
Arizona hasn't been very good on 3rd down or at Drive Efficiency. Arizona just doesn't score many more points than you would expect given what you can explain with Play Efficiency, Explosiveness, and Negative Drives. They will need to turn drives into more points and do far better on 3rd down.
Washington's defense (#47) is definitely being underrated by the model, but that is what happens when you play a schedule as terrible as Washington's; #113 in Defensive Strength of Schedule. Washington was spectacular last year, finishing #7 nationally in Defensive Beta_Rank, and they should be a top 20 defense again this year. We just aren't quite sure how great they will be yet.
Because Washington has played such bad competition it is very difficult to get a read on what they do well in advanced stats. They have really only had to be good at limiting Play Efficiency, and they have done that extremely well.
Washington's defense benefited quite a bit from some high turnover games last year, and while it is true that good defenses produce turnovers, there is also a random component to turnovers. Teams that had an unusually good year and then regress are often teams that had turnover luck in the first year. Washington does have a dominant defense, but games like they had last year against Arizona and Washington State have a luck component to them.
Chart reflect ranking percentile for Offense or Defense vs NCAA
0 is worst unit in NCAA 100 is best
Washington's defense benefited quite a bit from some high turnover games last year, and while it is true that good defenses produce turnovers, there is also a random component to turnovers. Teams that had an unusually good year and then regress are often teams that had turnover luck in the first year. Washington does have a dominant defense, but games like they had last year against Arizona and Washington State have a luck component to them.
0 is worst unit in NCAA 100 is best
Until Weeks 5-6 the model outputs are directional, but useful
The Arizona offense (#25) has really struggled against good defenses since Matt Scott played his last game, which was all the way back in 2012. This was on display fully when Arizona played BYU and the offense managed to look functionally incompetent against a defense that might finish above #30. Arizona fans hope that all changed when Solomon got hurt in practice and Dawkins started in his place and proved a bit of a revelation in actually running a zone read run scheme. Washington will be a significant step up in class from Hawaii, but Dawkins might also be the right man for this job. I don't think Arizona puts any pressure on Washington's defense without the extra dimension of Dawkins legs.
Arizona has been very good thus far in creating Explosive Drives. They have also put up good Play Efficiency numbers and they have been pretty good at avoiding D-plus plays. All of this will be critical vs. Washington, where big plays from Dawkins on the ground could put Washington in a zone, which should be better for Arizona's receivers, who might not be talented enough to get open in man coverage against Washington. If Dawkins can put up big plays with his legs and buy himself some time, that would be very good for Arizona. Last years game was pretty much decided by 4 Arizona turnovers, a fairly random statistical event, but if Arizona turns it over twice that is probably going to doom their chances.
Arizona hasn't been very good on 3rd down or at Drive Efficiency. Arizona just doesn't score many more points than you would expect given what you can explain with Play Efficiency, Explosiveness, and Negative Drives. They will need to turn drives into more points and do far better on 3rd down.
Arizona has been very good thus far in creating Explosive Drives. They have also put up good Play Efficiency numbers and they have been pretty good at avoiding D-plus plays. All of this will be critical vs. Washington, where big plays from Dawkins on the ground could put Washington in a zone, which should be better for Arizona's receivers, who might not be talented enough to get open in man coverage against Washington. If Dawkins can put up big plays with his legs and buy himself some time, that would be very good for Arizona. Last years game was pretty much decided by 4 Arizona turnovers, a fairly random statistical event, but if Arizona turns it over twice that is probably going to doom their chances.
Arizona hasn't been very good on 3rd down or at Drive Efficiency. Arizona just doesn't score many more points than you would expect given what you can explain with Play Efficiency, Explosiveness, and Negative Drives. They will need to turn drives into more points and do far better on 3rd down.
Washington's defense (#47) is definitely being underrated by the model, but that is what happens when you play a schedule as terrible as Washington's; #113 in Defensive Strength of Schedule. Washington was spectacular last year, finishing #7 nationally in Defensive Beta_Rank, and they should be a top 20 defense again this year. We just aren't quite sure how great they will be yet.
Because Washington has played such bad competition it is very difficult to get a read on what they do well in advanced stats. They have really only had to be good at limiting Play Efficiency, and they have done that extremely well.
Because Washington has played such bad competition it is very difficult to get a read on what they do well in advanced stats. They have really only had to be good at limiting Play Efficiency, and they have done that extremely well.
Washington's defense benefited quite a bit from some high turnover games last year, and while it is true that good defenses produce turnovers, there is also a random component to turnovers. Teams that had an unusually good year and then regress are often teams that had turnover luck in the first year. Washington does have a dominant defense, but games like they had last year against Arizona and Washington State have a luck component to them.
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