Week 4 Matchup California Offense vs ASU Defense

California Offense vs ASU Defense

Rankings reflect ranking percentile for Offense or Defense vs NCAA Smoothed D3.js Radar Chart


Chart reflect ranking percentile for Offense or Defense vs NCAA 
0 is worst unit in NCAA 100 is best


Until Weeks 5-6 the model outputs are directional, but useful

The Cal offense (#19), is the good news for Bears fans who read the Defense preview first. Sonny Dykes is Mike Leach without the weird, and often inexplicably dense spiels, and he might be a better offensive coach. The ability to plug Davis Webb into this offense and still be good after Goff's departure is a big deal. Cal has put up points against everybody so far, and Texas has some very good players and very good coaches.

Cal is very Explosive and is good at avoiding Negative Drives. Cal should have chances to carve up ASU because Todd Graham is the ASU coach and he still blitzes all the time. If you can pick up the blitz you will have plenty of opportunity to put up points and move the ball.

Cal isn't good at Drive Efficiency, preventing D-plus plays, or 3rd down. I think this changes as the season goes on, but at the moment Cal has been pretty feast or famine. They could be vulnerable against an ASU team that loves to blitz.

ASU's defense (#57) has not been very good. They are not Cal bad, but they gave up a ton of points to Texas Tech and gave up 28 to UTSA. ASU blitzes like a shirtless JR Smith calls his own number in a pickup game; all the time and that makes them good at forcing D-plus plays, but bad at preventing Explosive Drives.

This ASU defense is pretty NCAA average in most of my metrics, but they do produce D-plus plays at higher rate; which I think I have now mentioned at least 6 times. They are also better than average on 3rd down and at Drive Efficiency.

For all that blitzing and producing D-plus plays, ASU is not good at producing Negative Drives; suggesting that opponents often manage to dig themselves out of whatever holes an ASU blitz put them in on the same drive. ASU can't really fix it's Explosive Drives problem because, well, Todd Graham. 

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