Week 5 Matchup Stanford Offense vs Washington Defense

Stanford Offense vs Washington Defense

Rankings reflect ranking percentile for Offense or Defense vs NCAA Smoothed D3.js Radar Chart


Chart reflect ranking percentile for Offense or Defense vs NCAA 
0 is worst unit in NCAA 100 is best


Until Weeks 6-7 the model outputs are directional, but useful

The Stanford offense (#18) is pretty good, but it clearly isn't last year's version, and we might be saying that until the current bunch figures out the Stanford two step, lately they seem to be missing the play action part. UCLA might end with the conference's best defense, but the passing day Stanford had was terrible. If you can't effectively play action off Christian McCaffrey then you are doing something wrong.

Stanford is, believe it or not, a very very good 5 yards and a cloud of dust. They are extremely good at play efficiency, they avoid D-plus plays, they excel on 3rd Down, and the avoid Negative Drives. This offense is within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.

Stanford is OK at two things that they were great at last year; Drive Efficiency and Explosiveness. Stanford needs to turn more of its drives into points and it really needs to be more explosive. They need to connect on play action and they really need to get the ball downfield. Christian McCaffrey is going to have another empty-handed trip to NYC if they don't.

Washington's defense (#50)  is still underrated by the model, probably. They suffer a bit from giving up more points to Arizona per drive than BYU did and giving up quite a few explosive plays to Brandon Dawkins. I don't control for injuries or who plays in a game, so Washington gets dinged for having to play Dawkins instead of Anu Solomon. Ryan Burns is a willing runner, but not nearly as explosive as Dawkins. Washington should matchup well against Stanford's offense. They have the personnel to follow the UCLA blueprint in stifling Stanford.
Washington is pretty good at Play Efficiency and preventing Explosive Drives. They had a rough time of it fully containing Dawkins, but if you take away the explosive drives Arizona probably puts up 7 points. Washington stifled Arizona's offense in the 2nd and 3rd quarters and that kind of disciplined play will help tremendously against Stanford.

Washington has not been very good on 3rd down or creating D-plus plays when weighted by its Strength of Schedule and they have been pretty lousy at Drive Efficiency. Washington's defense is going to give up more points per drive than they yards per play metrics would predict.  

Comments