So Rich Rodriguez isn't getting fired. We mostly knew that already, but there was the chance that with a blowout loss to ASU, Rodriguez might get a late pink slip. Instead Arizona ran all over ASU and Rodriguez is riding his folksy charm and rivalry win into an off-season with way less heat on him than Todd Graham; which is to say Arizona cares far less about football than ASU because Todd Graham has had a bad two years, but his team has a lot more Pac-12 level talent on it and his bad two years (6-12 in conference) are still not as bad as Rodriguez's last two years (4-14 in conference).
Sports, rather like politics, is about managing expectations. In terms of Arizona's rebuild managing fan expectations for next year is critical for the rebuild to be done successfully. Look, I think Rodriguez should have been fired, he deserved it and I haven't heard any compelling arguments to keep him that don't revolve around his buyout, but Arizona needs a rebuild regardless of who the coach is and that rebuild needs to start now, not next year after Rodriguez spends a year trying not to get fired. I want Arizona to be successful at football. That happens sooner if Rodriguez starts immediately. Don't make it personal, and we'll come back to this; both ways.
Week 13 2016 Pac-12 Beta_Rank |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | School | Record | Pred_Record | Beta_Rank | O_Rnk | O_Score | D_Rnk | D_Score | Spcl_Tm_Rnk | Spcl_Tm_Score | Sched_Rnk | Sched_Strength | Record_Rnk | Record_Strength |
| 4 | Washington | 10 - 1 | 11 - 0 | 2.044 | 5 | 1.4434 | 6 | -0.4485 | 35 | 0.15203 | 62 | 0.066971 | 40 | -0.54464 |
| 8 | USC | 9 - 3 | 9 - 3 | 1.5941 | 19 | 1.115 | 13 | -0.2328 | 15 | 0.24586 | 7 | 0.51154 | 3 | 2.6013 |
| 10 | Colorado | 9 - 2 | 9 - 2 | 1.4445 | 45 | 0.69843 | 3 | -0.7011 | 62 | 0.044979 | 13 | 0.46755 | 5 | 1.9077 |
| 16 | Washington State | 8 - 3 | 9 - 2 | 1.267 | 6 | 1.2941 | 36 | 0.17878 | 36 | 0.15168 | 29 | 0.30937 | 48 | -0.82249 |
| 24 | Stanford | 9 - 3 | 6 - 6 | 0.9108 | 67 | 0.39233 | 21 | -0.077201 | 3 | 0.44126 | 12 | 0.46975 | 12 | 0.76029 |
| 34 | Utah | 7 - 4 | 6 - 5 | 0.60306 | 61 | 0.44839 | 35 | 0.16602 | 8 | 0.3207 | 28 | 0.31462 | 16 | 0.34752 |
| 43 | Oregon State | 3 - 8 | 4 - 7 | 0.43242 | 54 | 0.59458 | 45 | 0.26194 | 46 | 0.09978 | 5 | 0.55712 | 44 | -0.62846 |
| 56 | UCLA | 4 - 8 | 6 - 6 | 0.22138 | 89 | 0.19003 | 14 | -0.1603 | 99 | -0.12895 | 23 | 0.34546 | 43 | -0.58422 |
| 61 | Oregon | 3 - 8 | 3 - 8 | 0.067044 | 13 | 1.1921 | 119 | 1.2366 | 41 | 0.1115 | 10 | 0.48408 | 50 | -0.89275 |
| 62 | California | 5 - 7 | 5 - 7 | 0.06425 | 27 | 1.0238 | 115 | 1.1576 | 23 | 0.19803 | 15 | 0.45141 | 36 | -0.2812 |
| 80 | Arizona State | 4 - 7 | 2 - 9 | -0.44422 | 79 | 0.25793 | 84 | 0.79041 | 50 | 0.088258 | 11 | 0.4811 | 34 | -0.2508 |
| 91 | Arizona | 2 - 9 | 2 - 9 | -0.59227 | 35 | 0.83802 | 122 | 1.288 | 104 | -0.142 | 4 | 0.56569 | 65 | -1.4163 |
Sports, rather like politics, is about managing expectations. In terms of Arizona's rebuild managing fan expectations for next year is critical for the rebuild to be done successfully. Look, I think Rodriguez should have been fired, he deserved it and I haven't heard any compelling arguments to keep him that don't revolve around his buyout, but Arizona needs a rebuild regardless of who the coach is and that rebuild needs to start now, not next year after Rodriguez spends a year trying not to get fired. I want Arizona to be successful at football. That happens sooner if Rodriguez starts immediately. Don't make it personal, and we'll come back to this; both ways.
Year 0
Coaches, including Rodriguez, talk about about rebuilds as a 4 year process: Year 1 lose big, Year 2 lose small, Year 3 win small, and Year 4 win big. It is basically the blueprint to restock the program with guys that fit your system and grow into it. It is predicated on recruiting, but also player development. Lots of Arizona fans in the pro-Rodriguez camp are selling the idea that the rebuild has already started. In their minds this is Year 1. That could be true.
There is a case however that it is not. This could be Year 0; the year before the rebuild, the year the previous coach got fired and the new coach came in to start the 4 step process. There are a couple of reasons to think this is the case:
- 1 Sr. and 3 Jrs playing on the offensive line
- No recruited scholarship underclassmen playing on defensive front 7
- Atrocious lack of talent and depth at outside WR
- Anu Solomon could be the 2017 starter
- Rodriguez is terrible at rotating in players
The problem for Arizona is that outside of the slot receivers, secondary, and QB, almost nobody got development snaps this year who will be on the roster in 2018. Football is decided on the line and Arizona next year is going to be bad upperclassmen and redshirt and true freshman getting a baptism of fire. That sounds a lot more like Year 1 than Year 2 to me.
I don't think I am exaggerating when I say that Solomon and Dawkins haven't improved significantly from their first snaps at Arizona. In fact you could say that a whole host of QBs came to Arizona and never got any better in the Rodriguez era: Jesse Scroggins, Nick Isham, Connor Brewer, Jerrard Randle. Tom Savage, who went on to the NFL, wanted no part of Rodriguez or Rod Smith and transferred out immediately after Rodriguez was hired.
Solomon got through his reads as a redshirt freshman and he still does, but he hasn't improved on his bad deep throws, his middling blitz reads, or his lack of internal clock in his head when holding the ball in the pocket. Dawkins, who gets some weird criticism from pro-Solomon folks, is known as more of a runner because he is an athletic freak and also because he hasn't improved on his reads since his first snaps at Arizona. He gets through his first and second read and then takes off. He has a terrific arm and has some touch, but he struggles on deep passes as well when asked to throw into 1 on 1 coverage. The inability to develop Dawkins is especially criminal because if you can clean up his reads and technique, he would be better than Arizona fans have any right to expect.
This is all on Rod Smith and Rich Rodriguez who spends a lot of his time with the QBs. Rich Rodriguez should let Smith move on and give himself some other duties and hire somebody with less experience with his offense and more emphasis on technique and let them do their job.
Moving Day
The other issue is that Rodriguez has yet to acknowledge that his offense (#35) isn't all that good at Arizona and it comes down to recruiting and player development. Rodriguez had his best year back in 2012 with Mike Stoop's players and his offense has been Power 5 and Pac-12 average since. Moving day is the day lots of coaches get pink slips and Rodriguez needs to evaluate what is going on with his offensive coaches.Week 13 2016 Pac-12 Beta_Rank Offense |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | School | O_Score | Drive_Eff_Rnk | O_Drive_Eff | Play_Eff_Rnk | O_Play Eff | Exp_Rnk | O_Exp_Drives | Negative_Rnk | O_Neg_Drives | Sched_Rnk | Sched_Strength |
| 5 | Washington | 1.4434 | 34 | 0.38657 | 6 | 0.24696 | 2 | 0.91576 | 10 | -0.10581 | 76 | 0.57005 |
| 6 | Washington State | 1.2941 | 6 | 0.64823 | 46 | 0.16267 | 30 | 0.543 | 5 | -0.059738 | 48 | 0.417 |
| 13 | Oregon | 1.1921 | 71 | 0.24425 | 30 | 0.19439 | 7 | 0.80265 | 4 | -0.049128 | 13 | 0.16892 |
| 19 | USC | 1.115 | 84 | 0.20259 | 28 | 0.19707 | 17 | 0.66149 | 2 | 0.05433 | 20 | 0.244 |
| 27 | California | 1.0238 | 16 | 0.5193 | 42 | 0.16787 | 53 | 0.41249 | 7 | -0.07586 | 26 | 0.2765 |
| 35 | Arizona | 0.83802 | 88 | 0.18402 | 12 | 0.22297 | 26 | 0.56817 | 17 | -0.13715 | 4 | 0.064821 |
| 45 | Colorado | 0.69843 | 22 | 0.46986 | 60 | 0.1402 | 62 | 0.35855 | 52 | -0.27019 | 35 | 0.3331 |
| 54 | Oregon State | 0.59458 | 54 | 0.30153 | 31 | 0.19329 | 52 | 0.41545 | 65 | -0.31568 | 21 | 0.24868 |
| 61 | Utah | 0.44839 | 120 | 0.031459 | 36 | 0.17736 | 48 | 0.43998 | 30 | -0.2004 | 43 | 0.38513 |
| 67 | Stanford | 0.39233 | 127 | -0.14595 | 16 | 0.21377 | 44 | 0.46956 | 20 | -0.14504 | 40 | 0.37429 |
| 79 | Arizona State | 0.25793 | 35 | 0.38635 | 106 | 0.078114 | 83 | 0.2576 | 101 | -0.46413 | 45 | 0.38851 |
| 89 | UCLA | 0.19003 | 124 | 0.00082039 | 83 | 0.10591 | 56 | 0.39982 | 66 | -0.31652 | 37 | 0.34723 |
QB Stagnation
Does anyone even remember what Nick Foles and Matt Scott used to be like before Frank Sceflo was hired as QB coach? I do and they were both pretty raw. Foles was too much of a gunslinger and Scott struggled to get through all of his reads. They both had sloppy footwork. Sceflo helped them both tremendously. When Rodriguez inherited Matt Scott he inherited a significantly better player who was a truly dangerous passer with a live arm, touch, and who made it through his reads with certainty.I don't think I am exaggerating when I say that Solomon and Dawkins haven't improved significantly from their first snaps at Arizona. In fact you could say that a whole host of QBs came to Arizona and never got any better in the Rodriguez era: Jesse Scroggins, Nick Isham, Connor Brewer, Jerrard Randle. Tom Savage, who went on to the NFL, wanted no part of Rodriguez or Rod Smith and transferred out immediately after Rodriguez was hired.
Solomon got through his reads as a redshirt freshman and he still does, but he hasn't improved on his bad deep throws, his middling blitz reads, or his lack of internal clock in his head when holding the ball in the pocket. Dawkins, who gets some weird criticism from pro-Solomon folks, is known as more of a runner because he is an athletic freak and also because he hasn't improved on his reads since his first snaps at Arizona. He gets through his first and second read and then takes off. He has a terrific arm and has some touch, but he struggles on deep passes as well when asked to throw into 1 on 1 coverage. The inability to develop Dawkins is especially criminal because if you can clean up his reads and technique, he would be better than Arizona fans have any right to expect.
This is all on Rod Smith and Rich Rodriguez who spends a lot of his time with the QBs. Rich Rodriguez should let Smith move on and give himself some other duties and hire somebody with less experience with his offense and more emphasis on technique and let them do their job.
The Steve Young Test
Steve Young once said something along the lines of "In college everyone was open, in the NFL no one was open" to describe a major adjustment QBs make as the move to the NFL. The problem for Arizona is that no one is open in college.
Say what you want about Dawkins, but even if you are frustrated with how often he tucks and runs if his first two options are not open, you should be concerned with how often his first two options are not open. Solomon makes it much deeper into his reads, but that doesn't always mean that somebody is open. Solomon struggles with holding the ball too long or taking bad sacks, but when you combine those with his throw aways, you realize that he isn't finding a bunch of open receivers out there.
Some of this is recruiting. Arizona had Griffey and Poindexter on the roster as outside WR's this year and Griffey isn't in the same class as Criner, Hill, or Jones and Poindexter is a junior college product the staff flipped at the last minute from Marshall last year. Griffey graduates so next year it will only be Poindexter and Benjamin, as transfer who was a two star player who did not work out at noted football power South Florida. Playing Cam Denson at outside receiver is what you do when you realize that you didn't actually recruit any outside WRs and somebody has to play there anyway.
Say what you want about Dawkins, but even if you are frustrated with how often he tucks and runs if his first two options are not open, you should be concerned with how often his first two options are not open. Solomon makes it much deeper into his reads, but that doesn't always mean that somebody is open. Solomon struggles with holding the ball too long or taking bad sacks, but when you combine those with his throw aways, you realize that he isn't finding a bunch of open receivers out there.
Some of this is recruiting. Arizona had Griffey and Poindexter on the roster as outside WR's this year and Griffey isn't in the same class as Criner, Hill, or Jones and Poindexter is a junior college product the staff flipped at the last minute from Marshall last year. Griffey graduates so next year it will only be Poindexter and Benjamin, as transfer who was a two star player who did not work out at noted football power South Florida. Playing Cam Denson at outside receiver is what you do when you realize that you didn't actually recruit any outside WRs and somebody has to play there anyway.
Some of this is coaching and the playbook. Arizona has some reasonably talented slot receivers, but they don't get open all that often either. The Arizona route tree isn't working. It could be the routes, it could be the route running and cuts, it could be the coaching, it could be the players are not actually very talented, but it isn't working. It's time to overhaul the passing game and that starts with Tony Dews. If you really want to keep him then fine, but you HAVE to bring in an offensive consultant this year who used to be an assistant in the Hal Mumme side of the spread coaching family tree. What you are doing clearly isn't working. Oh and RECRUIT SOME OUTSIDE RECEIVERS FOR CHRIST'S SAKE. Mike Stoops's staff churned out high level college/late round draft pick outside receivers at Arizona. It can be done.
Rich Rod's New Job
Rodriguez needs to fire Charlie Ragle and coach special team's himself. Special teams (#104) are abysmal and Ragle hasn't turned up any major finds or top recruits from Phoenix. There is no point in keeping this charade going. Special teams players are usually 2nd stringers who would love a chance to impress the coach. Rodriguez could really be a catalyst if he took the assignment himself.
That might mean he gives up play calling and that might be OK. He has become stubborn rather than flexible in his play calling and personnel choices at Arizona and it is hurting the team. If Mark Helfrich gets fired Rich Rod should hire him and reshuffle his staff and just be a head coach. For that matter if Jim Mora gets fired then Rodriguez should discreetly push Yates out the door and offer Tom Bradley the moon to come coach his defense.
We Were Just Talking About Expectations
Expectations are crucial though and we need to get back to them. You see if Rodriguez goes into next year clearly on the hot seat and with too high a bar; he doesn't commit to a rebuild. He plays too many upperclassmen who won't be here in 2018 and he keeps all his offensive staff because he flinches. If people are expecting him to get to a bowl in 2017 then he probably makes poor choices in a Pyrrhic effort to save his job. If he is only expected to win 4-5 games that is a different story. The schedule softens up a bit with Oregon and Cal rotating back on and Washington and Stanford roll off. Those are both toss up games for Arizona right now, but that is an improvement for this squad.
Rodriguez could probably buy himself another year with more staff changes on offense too. Rodriguez is well liked by fans and media alike and he gets far more favorable coverage than Mike Stoops was getting in the low period at the end of his tenure and Rodriguez has put Arizona football in a worse position than Stoops left it to him.
Arizona fans who can make it impersonal should pressure the athletic department to pressure Rodriguez to make changes and pressure the local media to get a little less cozy with the coach who is such a good quote. I am not saying this like some sort of nutter from the internet fever swamps, but just somebody that is perplexed at the tone of coverage. Outside of Greg Hansen, Michael Lev, and most of the Star staff most of the time, the local media isn't doing a great job of separating the obvious warm feelings everyone has for Rodriguez as somebody they have to interact with and their responsibility to be honest about the state of the program; which Greg Hansen hit on the head when he called them possibly the worst team in Arizona history. Bizarrely they are underselling how bad the program has become and that could hurt Rodriguez next year when the results are unlikely to show up in the wins and losses. Fans are going to be really disappointed with the team and the local sports media if the team winds up worse than they were led to believe for the third straight year. Then they really might be out for Rodriguez's job.
Arizona fans who can make it impersonal should pressure the athletic department to pressure Rodriguez to make changes and pressure the local media to get a little less cozy with the coach who is such a good quote. I am not saying this like some sort of nutter from the internet fever swamps, but just somebody that is perplexed at the tone of coverage. Outside of Greg Hansen, Michael Lev, and most of the Star staff most of the time, the local media isn't doing a great job of separating the obvious warm feelings everyone has for Rodriguez as somebody they have to interact with and their responsibility to be honest about the state of the program; which Greg Hansen hit on the head when he called them possibly the worst team in Arizona history. Bizarrely they are underselling how bad the program has become and that could hurt Rodriguez next year when the results are unlikely to show up in the wins and losses. Fans are going to be really disappointed with the team and the local sports media if the team winds up worse than they were led to believe for the third straight year. Then they really might be out for Rodriguez's job.
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