Arizona Offense & Arizona Defense
Arizona Offense & Arizona Defense
Chart reflect ranking percentile for Offense or Defense vs NCAA
0 is worst unit in NCAA 100 is best
0 is worst unit in NCAA 100 is best
Head Coach: Rich Rodriguez 6th Season (18-26) Pac-12
Offensive Coordinator: Rodriguez/Calvin Magee/Rod Smith 6th Season
Defensive Coordinator: Marcel Yates 2nd Season
2016 Record: 3-9 Overall, 2-9 FBS, 1-8 Pac-12
Predicted Record: 2-9
Beta_Rank: #105, 12 in Pac-12
2017 Returning Production: #23, 75% (Per Bill Connelly)
The 2016 Arizona Wildcats football season was a brutal slog for team and fans alike. Arizona lost half their games by more than 20 points; including losing by 62 to WSU on the road. Arizona regressed in all three phases of the game off their 2015 rankings and finished as the second worst Power 5 team in America, save only Rutgers. The season featured two real surprises in taking Washington to OT at the beginning of conference play and shellacking ASU at the end of the season. In between the Wildcats were blown out in 6/7 games and many people, myself included, wondered if Rodriguez had lost the locker room.
The off-season hasn't been kind either. The once heralded recruiting class dissolved before signing day and 3 assistant coaches left for new jobs. Arizona finished 11th out of 12 in recruiting according to Scout's rankings and squarely in the bottom half of the Power 5 at #46. This is little different, and could be argued to be worse, than a typical Rodriguez class. Given that the staff has shown little aptitude for player development; this is not encouraging for the future.
Rodriguez had to hire 3 new assistant coaches and it would be fair to say that speculation about his job security did not help the hiring process. He hired Theron Aych from a UTEP staff that is probably just as much on the hot seat, Scott Boone who had not been retained when Brian Polian was let go at Nevada, and Brian Knorr who spend last season as an analyst at Ohio State.
The spring "game", or whatever, was a bit of a showcase for Khalil Tate who played well, but as Michael Lev astutely points out: had more of the ones while Dawkins had more of the walk-ons. I would hesitate to take much away in terms of offensive performance for anyone against Arizona's defense.
Rodriguez comes into this season squarely on the hot seat after going 4-14 in the Pac-12 the last two years; a huge fall from 2014 when Arizona won the South. More on that later.
Arizona Offense
2016 Beta_Rank: #46, 6th in Pac-12
Returning Production: #47, 70%, +1.7 PPG (Per Bill Connelly)
Arizona's offense hasn't lived up to Rich Rodriguez's reputation since 2012 where he had Matt Scott and a bunch of Stoops's recruits. In 2015 they managed to finish #27, but still in the middle of the Pac-12. Falling to #46 isn't good news, but with so much production returning they do have a shot to improve in 2017, though a lot of fan perception and record will depend on the defense and special teams not being among the worst units nationally.
Arizona had a few good games in 2016 against Washington, Utah, and ASU; though to be fair ASU's defense was also terrible. Arizona in 2016, was a lot like Arizona in 2015; done in by field position and lack of consistency. Beta_Rank's two most important components are Drive Efficiency and Explosiveness. Arizona ranked #97 in Drive Efficiency, which is to say, they rarely put together long drives or strung together multiple first downs. Arizona ranked #19 in Play Efficiency, which controls for their yards per play rate. Arizona was also pretty explosive #33 and didn't go 3 and out very often #20 in Negative Drives.
If you watched much Arizona last season you could see how this played out on the field. Arizona struggled mightily under the burden of terrible field position, but that is only part of it. The offense failed to execute, but was still extremely dangerous with Dawkins or Tate getting the ball every snap. Part of this is play calling and system. Rodriguez isn't sneaking up on anyone in the Pac-12 anymore and it shows. Arizona was good when Dawkins/Tate were able to generate big plays on the ground, pick up the tempo, force the defense into a zone to keep eyes on the QB, and find receivers in the soft spots. The offense didn't work at all when the defense had time to set itself or when the defense could sit in man and still contain the QB. The receivers are not getting open on their own and the QB's are all holding the ball too long. Running back was decimated by injury last year and that didn't help, but the offensive line was just bad. Good news the RB's are back, but the bad news is that so is much of the line.
2017 should be a little kinder to Arizona. You swap out Stanford (#26) and Washington (#4) for Oregon (#122) and Cal (#120). That should help the offense look a little better on the conventional stat sheet. I don't think it is crazy to expect some improvements for Cal and Oregon given the impressive staffs they have hired, but they should still be bad enough to make Arizona look pretty good on offense.
I'd be surprised to see Dawkins last the entire season at QB given that whomever is back there is going to take a lot of hits, but also because the offense is going to struggle brutally again against competent defenses who get to pin them back with poor starting field position. Rodriguez will be coaching for his job so he'll have a short leash, especially if a game starts to get out of hand at home.
Arizona lost most of its production at receiver and they are especially thin on the outside where they have not recruited well at all. Rodriguez would be smart to get his tight ends more involved, but that talk is as annually regular as it is annually unfulfilled. The line returns 4 starters and 3 seniors (which doesn't bode well for 2018), but that experience is certainly a positive. If the running backs can stay healthy the offense could take a step forward, but without the defense and special teams improving your average fan might not notice it.
Arizona Defense
2016 Beta_Rank: #125, 12th in Pac-12
Returning Production: #17, 79%, -2.6 PPG (Per Bill Connelly)
If you were to call out one of these games as a must win for Rodriguez it is probably the UTEP game. That seems like a low bar, but Arizona isn't likely to be good enough to just show up and beat the Miners on the road and a loss probably gets Rodriguez fired mid-season. There is going to be a lot more weight put on the Houston game the week before since it will be at home and fans will look at it as a measuring stick for the team's improvement. Anything from win to close loss where they play well against Houston probably generates positive momentum around the team, but even the energy from a Houston win dissipates if you lose the next week.
The other key for Rodriguez to keep his job through the end of the season is not getting blown out, especially at home. Arizona wasn't like UCLA last year; unlucky and struggling on one side of the ball, but talented. Arizona was just mostly non-competitive in conference play last year and there is a danger that will be the case again. Outside of the offensive backfield Arizona has not recruited Power 5 level talent under Rodriguez and you can see the team's deterioration as more of his recruits age up and Stoops's recruits age out. When stacked up against the top half of the Pac-12 things are likely to get ugly again this season. I think Arizona can play Utah and Colorado close this year as both teams suffered a bit from graduation and the draft, but UCLA has built a marvelous defense under Tom Bradley and if Rosen is healthy and the offense isn't grossly flaccid then UCLA is going to run up the score if they can; because Jim Mora is that kind of person and he seems to personally not like Rodriguez. WSU at home and then USC on the road have the possibility to get really out of hand. OSU is a team that I think a lot of Arizona fans disdainfully don't pay any attention to, but last years whipping was no fluke. The Beavers are heading in a different direction than Arizona under Gary Anderson and they probably take another step forward this year. It is crucial for Rodriguez not to get blown out three games in a row with two at home.
I am not sanguine about Arizona's chances to make it to a bowl game. Again; they lost 6 of their 9 conference games last year by 20+ points, but if you were to construct a path to bowl eligibility it probably means sweeping the non-conference and then beating Cal, Oregon and ASU. Arizona has inferior talent to all these teams and likely only has a better coaching staff than ASU. Worse though, all these games are on the road. I really like the staffs that Oregon and Cal have put together and while I wouldn't pick them to win the North, I think they will both be touchdown favorites or more against Arizona at home. ASU is a weird animal. They fell off the map on defense last year and had brutal QB injuries and line play, but I have a hard time believing Graham's team is terrible on defense two years in a row. If ASU's line play improves, then they likely keep their QB upright and they have skill position players that are better than any player Arizona has had since Kadeem Carey. That is a lot to go right, but while both teams were bad last year, ASU has just recruited so much better than Arizona has under Rodriguez. I expect ASU is probably favored by a touchdown or more at kickoff.
I don't think the bar for Rodriguez staying at Arizona is necessarily bowl eligibility. He could win 4-5 games and lose the rest pretty close and I think he keeps his job, the key is avoiding blowouts. He can make a case that the team is headed in the right direction with close losses. I don't think that happens though. The defense and special teams fell so far off the map that even big improvements might not show up significantly in the scores and record. Arizona needs to improve, but also catch some luck to save Rodriguez and I think he could luck into a win or two, but you can't beat the numbers all season.
Predicted Record: 4-8, 3-8 FBS, 1-8 Pac-12
Wins: NAU, Houston, UTEP, Cal
Losses: Utah, Colorado, UCLA, WSU, USC, OSU, Oregon, ASU
Offensive Coordinator: Rodriguez/Calvin Magee/Rod Smith 6th Season
Defensive Coordinator: Marcel Yates 2nd Season
2016 Record: 3-9 Overall, 2-9 FBS, 1-8 Pac-12
Predicted Record: 2-9
Beta_Rank: #105, 12 in Pac-12
2017 Returning Production: #23, 75% (Per Bill Connelly)
Final 2016 Pac-12 Beta_Rank |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | School | Record | Pred_Record | Beta_Rank | O_Rnk | O_Score | D_Rnk | D_Score | Spcl_Tm_Rnk | Spcl_Tm_Score | Sched_Rnk | Sched_Strength | Record_Rnk | Record_Strength |
| 8 | Washington | 11 - 2 | 12 - 1 | 1.7246 | 14 | 1.1577 | 4 | -0.50866 | 55 | 0.058237 | 57 | 0.14029 | 71 | -1.6314 |
| 12 | USC | 10 - 3 | 10 - 3 | 1.3537 | 13 | 1.1638 | 28 | 0.027841 | 23 | 0.21779 | 26 | 0.35149 | 11 | 1.749 |
| 26 | Washington State | 8 - 4 | 10 - 2 | 0.75838 | 22 | 1.0036 | 46 | 0.26476 | 66 | 0.019493 | 61 | 0.076593 | 76 | -2.124 |
| 29 | Colorado | 9 - 4 | 7 - 6 | 0.67868 | 63 | 0.40475 | 7 | -0.37237 | 97 | -0.098444 | 23 | 0.388 | 45 | -0.58054 |
| 33 | Stanford | 10 - 3 | 6 - 7 | 0.60869 | 80 | 0.23895 | 26 | 0.017707 | 2 | 0.38745 | 36 | 0.32796 | 20 | 0.75315 |
| 51 | Utah | 8 - 4 | 7 - 5 | 0.27376 | 69 | 0.33861 | 47 | 0.27012 | 25 | 0.20527 | 64 | 0.06525 | 58 | -1.0571 |
| 63 | Oregon State | 3 - 8 | 4 - 7 | 0.071647 | 56 | 0.48463 | 58 | 0.4228 | 69 | 0.0098132 | 47 | 0.2671 | 64 | -1.3148 |
| 70 | UCLA | 4 - 8 | 6 - 6 | -0.10776 | 99 | 0.03221 | 20 | -0.071868 | 115 | -0.21184 | 59 | 0.083197 | 66 | -1.4059 |
| 73 | California | 5 - 7 | 5 - 7 | -0.1892 | 28 | 0.94391 | 120 | 1.2587 | 38 | 0.1256 | 54 | 0.20278 | 48 | -0.67754 |
| 81 | Oregon | 3 - 8 | 3 - 8 | -0.26398 | 20 | 1.0485 | 122 | 1.3369 | 63 | 0.024455 | 49 | 0.25484 | 59 | -1.1213 |
| 97 | Arizona State | 4 - 7 | 2 - 9 | -0.76348 | 91 | 0.15008 | 95 | 0.91149 | 73 | -0.0020726 | 50 | 0.24508 | 41 | -0.44585 |
| 105 | Arizona | 2 - 9 | 2 - 9 | -0.94604 | 46 | 0.68807 | 125 | 1.3995 | 118 | -0.23451 | 41 | 0.28976 | 68 | -1.5401 |
The 2016 Arizona Wildcats football season was a brutal slog for team and fans alike. Arizona lost half their games by more than 20 points; including losing by 62 to WSU on the road. Arizona regressed in all three phases of the game off their 2015 rankings and finished as the second worst Power 5 team in America, save only Rutgers. The season featured two real surprises in taking Washington to OT at the beginning of conference play and shellacking ASU at the end of the season. In between the Wildcats were blown out in 6/7 games and many people, myself included, wondered if Rodriguez had lost the locker room.
The off-season hasn't been kind either. The once heralded recruiting class dissolved before signing day and 3 assistant coaches left for new jobs. Arizona finished 11th out of 12 in recruiting according to Scout's rankings and squarely in the bottom half of the Power 5 at #46. This is little different, and could be argued to be worse, than a typical Rodriguez class. Given that the staff has shown little aptitude for player development; this is not encouraging for the future.
Rodriguez had to hire 3 new assistant coaches and it would be fair to say that speculation about his job security did not help the hiring process. He hired Theron Aych from a UTEP staff that is probably just as much on the hot seat, Scott Boone who had not been retained when Brian Polian was let go at Nevada, and Brian Knorr who spend last season as an analyst at Ohio State.
The spring "game", or whatever, was a bit of a showcase for Khalil Tate who played well, but as Michael Lev astutely points out: had more of the ones while Dawkins had more of the walk-ons. I would hesitate to take much away in terms of offensive performance for anyone against Arizona's defense.
Rodriguez comes into this season squarely on the hot seat after going 4-14 in the Pac-12 the last two years; a huge fall from 2014 when Arizona won the South. More on that later.
Arizona Offense
2016 Beta_Rank: #46, 6th in Pac-12
Returning Production: #47, 70%, +1.7 PPG (Per Bill Connelly)
Final 2016 Pac-12 Beta_Rank Offense |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | School | O_Score | Drive_Eff_Rnk | O_Drive_Eff | Play_Eff_Rnk | O_Play Eff | Exp_Rnk | O_Exp_Drives | Negative_Rnk | O_Neg_Drives | Sched_Rnk | Sched_Strength |
| 13 | USC | 1.1638 | 58 | 0.29758 | 23 | 0.1936 | 15 | 0.67406 | 2 | -0.0014164 | 40 | 0.32394 |
| 14 | Washington | 1.1577 | 20 | 0.47387 | 21 | 0.19899 | 12 | 0.7317 | 47 | -0.24695 | 64 | 0.4522 |
| 20 | Oregon | 1.0485 | 81 | 0.20531 | 34 | 0.176 | 11 | 0.7548 | 8 | -0.08763 | 34 | 0.28433 |
| 22 | Washington State | 1.0036 | 9 | 0.59829 | 60 | 0.13803 | 53 | 0.40573 | 15 | -0.1384 | 65 | 0.45867 |
| 28 | California | 0.94391 | 17 | 0.50341 | 50 | 0.15294 | 55 | 0.38635 | 10 | -0.098793 | 41 | 0.32436 |
| 46 | Arizona | 0.68807 | 97 | 0.15344 | 19 | 0.20211 | 33 | 0.51812 | 20 | -0.18561 | 14 | 0.18297 |
| 56 | Oregon State | 0.48463 | 62 | 0.27969 | 31 | 0.18 | 56 | 0.38243 | 75 | -0.35799 | 45 | 0.34472 |
| 63 | Colorado | 0.40475 | 30 | 0.4135 | 86 | 0.10457 | 87 | 0.25062 | 78 | -0.36395 | 53 | 0.38142 |
| 69 | Utah | 0.33861 | 126 | -0.064537 | 41 | 0.16359 | 41 | 0.45339 | 34 | -0.2138 | 67 | 0.47282 |
| 80 | Stanford | 0.23895 | 127 | -0.11223 | 33 | 0.18002 | 44 | 0.44067 | 54 | -0.2695 | 59 | 0.42662 |
| 91 | Arizona State | 0.15008 | 43 | 0.35526 | 112 | 0.063787 | 89 | 0.23115 | 110 | -0.5001 | 69 | 0.47707 |
| 99 | UCLA | 0.03221 | 124 | -0.03586 | 100 | 0.081505 | 63 | 0.35186 | 81 | -0.36529 | 68 | 0.47652 |
Arizona's offense hasn't lived up to Rich Rodriguez's reputation since 2012 where he had Matt Scott and a bunch of Stoops's recruits. In 2015 they managed to finish #27, but still in the middle of the Pac-12. Falling to #46 isn't good news, but with so much production returning they do have a shot to improve in 2017, though a lot of fan perception and record will depend on the defense and special teams not being among the worst units nationally.
Arizona had a few good games in 2016 against Washington, Utah, and ASU; though to be fair ASU's defense was also terrible. Arizona in 2016, was a lot like Arizona in 2015; done in by field position and lack of consistency. Beta_Rank's two most important components are Drive Efficiency and Explosiveness. Arizona ranked #97 in Drive Efficiency, which is to say, they rarely put together long drives or strung together multiple first downs. Arizona ranked #19 in Play Efficiency, which controls for their yards per play rate. Arizona was also pretty explosive #33 and didn't go 3 and out very often #20 in Negative Drives.
If you watched much Arizona last season you could see how this played out on the field. Arizona struggled mightily under the burden of terrible field position, but that is only part of it. The offense failed to execute, but was still extremely dangerous with Dawkins or Tate getting the ball every snap. Part of this is play calling and system. Rodriguez isn't sneaking up on anyone in the Pac-12 anymore and it shows. Arizona was good when Dawkins/Tate were able to generate big plays on the ground, pick up the tempo, force the defense into a zone to keep eyes on the QB, and find receivers in the soft spots. The offense didn't work at all when the defense had time to set itself or when the defense could sit in man and still contain the QB. The receivers are not getting open on their own and the QB's are all holding the ball too long. Running back was decimated by injury last year and that didn't help, but the offensive line was just bad. Good news the RB's are back, but the bad news is that so is much of the line.
2017 should be a little kinder to Arizona. You swap out Stanford (#26) and Washington (#4) for Oregon (#122) and Cal (#120). That should help the offense look a little better on the conventional stat sheet. I don't think it is crazy to expect some improvements for Cal and Oregon given the impressive staffs they have hired, but they should still be bad enough to make Arizona look pretty good on offense.
I'd be surprised to see Dawkins last the entire season at QB given that whomever is back there is going to take a lot of hits, but also because the offense is going to struggle brutally again against competent defenses who get to pin them back with poor starting field position. Rodriguez will be coaching for his job so he'll have a short leash, especially if a game starts to get out of hand at home.
Arizona lost most of its production at receiver and they are especially thin on the outside where they have not recruited well at all. Rodriguez would be smart to get his tight ends more involved, but that talk is as annually regular as it is annually unfulfilled. The line returns 4 starters and 3 seniors (which doesn't bode well for 2018), but that experience is certainly a positive. If the running backs can stay healthy the offense could take a step forward, but without the defense and special teams improving your average fan might not notice it.
Arizona Defense
2016 Beta_Rank: #125, 12th in Pac-12
Returning Production: #17, 79%, -2.6 PPG (Per Bill Connelly)
Final 2016 Pac-12 Beta_Rank Defense |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | School | D_Score | Drive_Eff_Rnk | D_Drive_Eff | Play_Eff_Rnk | D_Play Eff | Exp_Rnk | D_Exp_Drives | Negative_Rnk | D_Neg_Drives | Sched_Rnk | Sched_Strength |
| 4 | Washington | -0.50866 | 33 | 0.15734 | 5 | 0.029519 | 5 | -0.057265 | 6 | -0.63826 | 41 | 0.58171 |
| 7 | Colorado | -0.37237 | 5 | -0.077452 | 11 | 0.047403 | 21 | 0.13758 | 20 | -0.47991 | 13 | 0.73958 |
| 20 | UCLA | -0.071868 | 82 | 0.352 | 17 | 0.066616 | 8 | -0.0090029 | 17 | -0.48149 | 49 | 0.55971 |
| 26 | Stanford | 0.017707 | 84 | 0.35831 | 27 | 0.084665 | 10 | 0.048997 | 22 | -0.47426 | 16 | 0.72935 |
| 28 | USC | 0.027841 | 66 | 0.29817 | 84 | 0.1539 | 11 | 0.057021 | 18 | -0.48126 | 31 | 0.6484 |
| 46 | Washington State | 0.26476 | 10 | 0.04518 | 72 | 0.14082 | 58 | 0.336 | 79 | -0.25751 | 52 | 0.5416 |
| 47 | Utah | 0.27012 | 53 | 0.25264 | 40 | 0.10913 | 55 | 0.2954 | 36 | -0.387 | 53 | 0.53807 |
| 58 | Oregon State | 0.4228 | 30 | 0.14482 | 67 | 0.13706 | 65 | 0.38419 | 87 | -0.24328 | 37 | 0.61183 |
| 95 | Arizona State | 0.91149 | 103 | 0.4896 | 122 | 0.24353 | 96 | 0.54151 | 47 | -0.3632 | 12 | 0.74444 |
| 120 | California | 1.2587 | 118 | 0.63941 | 112 | 0.20261 | 110 | 0.62367 | 96 | -0.2069 | 51 | 0.54404 |
| 122 | Oregon | 1.3369 | 126 | 0.83402 | 70 | 0.1388 | 100 | 0.58253 | 95 | -0.2184 | 46 | 0.56235 |
| 125 | Arizona | 1.3995 | 128 | 0.9525 | 86 | 0.15714 | 87 | 0.49328 | 99 | -0.20332 | 62 | 0.49908 |
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Arizona's defense managed to get even worse in Marcel Yates first year #125 vs. 2015 #108. I don't think you can hang that all on Yates who had a poor hand in terms of talent and whose players had to adjust to a whole new staff, but it won't look good for him if Cal and Oregon improve under similar circumstances.
The defense was very bad at Drive Efficiency #128, Play Efficiency #86, Explosive Drives #87, and Negative Drives #99. It is hard to point to anything that they were good at, but they were extremely bad against the pass; see WSU game. Arizona did not get good pressure on the QB and lacked Power 5 level talent in the defensive backfield. Though to be fair it isn't like Washington and Colorado didn't just line up and run the ball right over Arizona too.
The concern, if you are an Arizona fan, is where the improvement comes from if the team doesn't get better up front. There is some reason for optimism that the defensive backfield improves, but linebacker utterly lacked young players who got game experience last year, and the same is basically true up front. Arizona's scheme, like any 3 man front, depends on pressure getting home from blitzers, but who, other than D'Andre Miller, can even do that?
While the offense wins with Stanford and Washington departing; it is a bit more of a mixed bag for the defense since Oregon and Cal have been very good on offense and bring in talented staffs on the coordinator side; even if they take a step back I would expect both to finish in the top half of the Pac-12 again. Other than ASU and Cal, none of the Pac-12 teams on Arizona's schedule have a real QB controversy and frankly ASU could get a big upgrade with either Wilkins or Barnett getting the ball to their skill position players.
Arizona is likely to be better in 2017, you can't actually get much worse than #125 out of 128, but I am not sure anyone notices the improvement unless the defense has some miracle jump to the 60-70 range. The defense is still going to be bad enough to make winning difficult if they are 70+, but Yates would have worked a small miracle if he gets this defense under #85 by season's end.
Arizona Special Teams
2016 Beta_Rank: #118, 12th in Pac-12
Returning Starters: Josh Pollack
Here is the sneaky culprit of Arizona's decline from being bad in 2015 to terrible in 2016. Arizona went from having a top 25 unit (#21) to one of the worst in the country. When your defense is awful you really need your special teams to make it count when they force a punt or your offense manages to turn bad field position into a field goal opportunity. Arizona's special teams made it worse. They really need 5* kicking recruit Lucas Havrisik to pan out immediately.
2017 Schedule and Outlook
Arizona's defense managed to get even worse in Marcel Yates first year #125 vs. 2015 #108. I don't think you can hang that all on Yates who had a poor hand in terms of talent and whose players had to adjust to a whole new staff, but it won't look good for him if Cal and Oregon improve under similar circumstances.
The defense was very bad at Drive Efficiency #128, Play Efficiency #86, Explosive Drives #87, and Negative Drives #99. It is hard to point to anything that they were good at, but they were extremely bad against the pass; see WSU game. Arizona did not get good pressure on the QB and lacked Power 5 level talent in the defensive backfield. Though to be fair it isn't like Washington and Colorado didn't just line up and run the ball right over Arizona too.
The concern, if you are an Arizona fan, is where the improvement comes from if the team doesn't get better up front. There is some reason for optimism that the defensive backfield improves, but linebacker utterly lacked young players who got game experience last year, and the same is basically true up front. Arizona's scheme, like any 3 man front, depends on pressure getting home from blitzers, but who, other than D'Andre Miller, can even do that?
While the offense wins with Stanford and Washington departing; it is a bit more of a mixed bag for the defense since Oregon and Cal have been very good on offense and bring in talented staffs on the coordinator side; even if they take a step back I would expect both to finish in the top half of the Pac-12 again. Other than ASU and Cal, none of the Pac-12 teams on Arizona's schedule have a real QB controversy and frankly ASU could get a big upgrade with either Wilkins or Barnett getting the ball to their skill position players.
Arizona is likely to be better in 2017, you can't actually get much worse than #125 out of 128, but I am not sure anyone notices the improvement unless the defense has some miracle jump to the 60-70 range. The defense is still going to be bad enough to make winning difficult if they are 70+, but Yates would have worked a small miracle if he gets this defense under #85 by season's end.
Arizona Special Teams
2016 Beta_Rank: #118, 12th in Pac-12
Returning Starters: Josh Pollack
Here is the sneaky culprit of Arizona's decline from being bad in 2015 to terrible in 2016. Arizona went from having a top 25 unit (#21) to one of the worst in the country. When your defense is awful you really need your special teams to make it count when they force a punt or your offense manages to turn bad field position into a field goal opportunity. Arizona's special teams made it worse. They really need 5* kicking recruit Lucas Havrisik to pan out immediately.
2017 Schedule and Outlook
| Sat, Sep 2 | vs | |||||
| Sat, Sep 9 | vs | |||||
| Fri, Sep 15 | @ | |||||
Northern AZ
Houston
UTEP
Utah
Colorado
UCLA
California
Washington St
USC
Oregon State
Oregon
Arizona State
All times are in Eastern Time
If you were to call out one of these games as a must win for Rodriguez it is probably the UTEP game. That seems like a low bar, but Arizona isn't likely to be good enough to just show up and beat the Miners on the road and a loss probably gets Rodriguez fired mid-season. There is going to be a lot more weight put on the Houston game the week before since it will be at home and fans will look at it as a measuring stick for the team's improvement. Anything from win to close loss where they play well against Houston probably generates positive momentum around the team, but even the energy from a Houston win dissipates if you lose the next week.
The other key for Rodriguez to keep his job through the end of the season is not getting blown out, especially at home. Arizona wasn't like UCLA last year; unlucky and struggling on one side of the ball, but talented. Arizona was just mostly non-competitive in conference play last year and there is a danger that will be the case again. Outside of the offensive backfield Arizona has not recruited Power 5 level talent under Rodriguez and you can see the team's deterioration as more of his recruits age up and Stoops's recruits age out. When stacked up against the top half of the Pac-12 things are likely to get ugly again this season. I think Arizona can play Utah and Colorado close this year as both teams suffered a bit from graduation and the draft, but UCLA has built a marvelous defense under Tom Bradley and if Rosen is healthy and the offense isn't grossly flaccid then UCLA is going to run up the score if they can; because Jim Mora is that kind of person and he seems to personally not like Rodriguez. WSU at home and then USC on the road have the possibility to get really out of hand. OSU is a team that I think a lot of Arizona fans disdainfully don't pay any attention to, but last years whipping was no fluke. The Beavers are heading in a different direction than Arizona under Gary Anderson and they probably take another step forward this year. It is crucial for Rodriguez not to get blown out three games in a row with two at home.
I am not sanguine about Arizona's chances to make it to a bowl game. Again; they lost 6 of their 9 conference games last year by 20+ points, but if you were to construct a path to bowl eligibility it probably means sweeping the non-conference and then beating Cal, Oregon and ASU. Arizona has inferior talent to all these teams and likely only has a better coaching staff than ASU. Worse though, all these games are on the road. I really like the staffs that Oregon and Cal have put together and while I wouldn't pick them to win the North, I think they will both be touchdown favorites or more against Arizona at home. ASU is a weird animal. They fell off the map on defense last year and had brutal QB injuries and line play, but I have a hard time believing Graham's team is terrible on defense two years in a row. If ASU's line play improves, then they likely keep their QB upright and they have skill position players that are better than any player Arizona has had since Kadeem Carey. That is a lot to go right, but while both teams were bad last year, ASU has just recruited so much better than Arizona has under Rodriguez. I expect ASU is probably favored by a touchdown or more at kickoff.
I don't think the bar for Rodriguez staying at Arizona is necessarily bowl eligibility. He could win 4-5 games and lose the rest pretty close and I think he keeps his job, the key is avoiding blowouts. He can make a case that the team is headed in the right direction with close losses. I don't think that happens though. The defense and special teams fell so far off the map that even big improvements might not show up significantly in the scores and record. Arizona needs to improve, but also catch some luck to save Rodriguez and I think he could luck into a win or two, but you can't beat the numbers all season.
Predicted Record: 4-8, 3-8 FBS, 1-8 Pac-12
Wins: NAU, Houston, UTEP, Cal
Losses: Utah, Colorado, UCLA, WSU, USC, OSU, Oregon, ASU
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