2017 Predicted Beta_Rank

Scores are scaled with Texas State being 0 and Alabama being 1; all other scores are measured in that space.

See bottom of page for functional form of regression

Final 2015 Beta_Rank
Pred Rank	School	Pred Beta Scale	Prev Rank	Prev Beta Scale	YoY Rank +-	Pred Record	Tossup Record	SOS Rank	SOS
1	Alabama	1	1	1	0	11 - 0	11.0 - 0.0	11	3.5937
2	Ohio State	0.89699	7	0.83512	5	12 - 0	12.0 - 0.0	57	3.2480
3	Florida State	0.88232	6	0.8462	3	10 - 1	10.0 - 1.0	12	3.5725
4	LSU	0.80425	4	0.85644	0	10 - 1	9.5 - 1.5	9	3.5974
5	Oklahoma	0.7807	3	0.86923	-2	11 - 1	11.0 - 1.0	44	3.3406
6	Washington	0.77909	8	0.83087	2	11 - 0	11.0 - 0.0	62	3.1318
7	USC	0.77699	12	0.75395	5	12 - 0	12.0 - 0.0	46	3.3367
8	Clemson	0.7734	2	0.96673	-6	10 - 1	9.5 - 1.5	23	3.4552
9	Penn State	0.76592	9	0.78151	0	11 - 1	11.0 - 1.0	59	3.2374
10	Georgia	0.74290	47	0.54703	37	10 - 1	10.5 - 0.5	15	3.5482
11	Auburn	0.74216	13	0.74920	2	8 - 3	8.5 - 2.5	6	3.6232
12	Michigan	0.6612	5	0.84933	-7	10 - 2	9.0 - 3.0	47	3.3237
13	Oklahoma State	0.63710	10	0.77155	-3	10 - 2	10.0 - 2.0	51	3.2820
14	Florida	0.63305	22	0.66423	8	6 - 4	6.5 - 3.5	1	3.8195
15	Texas	0.62671	44	0.55321	29	10 - 2	9.0 - 3.0	32	3.4133
16	Stanford	0.61527	33	0.59944	17	10 - 2	8.5 - 3.5	38	3.3929
17	Wisconsin	0.60484	15	0.73037	-2	11 - 1	11.0 - 1.0	66	3.0611
18	Notre Dame	0.60285	24	0.64770	6	8 - 4	9.0 - 3.0	35	3.4042
19	Louisville	0.59542	19	0.69185	0	9 - 2	8.0 - 3.0	52	3.2804
20	Miami (Florida)	0.59404	11	0.75917	-9	10 - 1	9.5 - 1.5	41	3.359
21	TCU	0.58940	38	0.56907	17	8 - 3	8.5 - 2.5	36	3.4018
22	Northwestern	0.56682	34	0.59542	12	10 - 2	10.5 - 1.5	63	3.1214
23	Oregon	0.55200	81	0.41845	58	9 - 2	8.5 - 2.5	50	3.3059
24	Texas A&M	0.52404	30	0.6120	6	6 - 5	5.0 - 6.0	7	3.6208
25	North Carolina State	0.51889	35	0.59098	10	7 - 4	7.0 - 4.0	24	3.4497
26	Washington State	0.51791	26	0.63048	0	7 - 4	7.5 - 3.5	27	3.4356
27	Kentucky	0.50940	53	0.52696	26	8 - 3	6.0 - 5.0	33	3.4088
28	UCLA	0.50685	70	0.45085	42	8 - 4	7.5 - 4.5	34	3.4057
29	Virginia Tech	0.50548	16	0.71896	-13	8 - 3	8.0 - 3.0	61	3.1833
30	Kansas State	0.4984	18	0.69409	-12	6 - 5	5.5 - 5.5	40	3.3706
31	Tennessee	0.49774	27	0.62467	-4	6 - 5	5.0 - 6.0	5	3.6298
32	Georgia Tech	0.49336	25	0.63173	-7	7 - 4	6.5 - 4.5	21	3.4649
33	Vanderbilt	0.49026	43	0.55895	10	6 - 5	5.5 - 5.5	10	3.5957
34	Mississippi State	0.48905	52	0.52864	18	5 - 6	5.0 - 6.0	3	3.6537
35	Texas Tech	0.47510	45	0.55260	10	6 - 5	5.5 - 5.5	31	3.4167
36	Colorado	0.46941	29	0.61395	-7	7 - 4	6.5 - 4.5	53	3.2725
37	Mississippi	0.46539	57	0.50951	20	4 - 7	5.5 - 5.5	16	3.5307
38	Baylor	0.45545	41	0.56196	3	4 - 7	5.0 - 6.0	29	3.4270
39	South Florida	0.45424	49	0.53547	10	11 - 0	11.0 - 0.0	108	2.5966
40	Indiana	0.45246	64	0.48719	24	7 - 5	7.0 - 5.0	60	3.2243
41	Arkansas	0.44907	37	0.58784	-4	2 - 8	3.5 - 6.5	2	3.6974
42	Duke	0.44639	66	0.46236	24	6 - 5	5.0 - 6.0	28	3.4274
43	Michigan State	0.44575	60	0.4945	17	6 - 6	5.5 - 6.5	22	3.4646
44	South Carolina	0.44375	69	0.45138	25	3 - 8	4.0 - 7.0	13	3.5622
45	Iowa State	0.43945	56	0.51655	11	4 - 7	4.5 - 6.5	39	3.3785
46	Colorado State	0.43657	61	0.49273	15	9 - 2	8.5 - 2.5	70	2.913
47	Iowa	0.43539	28	0.61504	-19	5 - 7	6.0 - 6.0	49	3.3128
48	Minnesota	0.42878	42	0.56188	-6	8 - 4	6.5 - 5.5	64	3.0973
49	Boise State	0.42752	36	0.58857	-13	10 - 2	9.5 - 2.5	88	2.7267
50	Nebraska	0.42616	65	0.47872	15	6 - 6	6.0 - 6.0	48	3.313
51	North Carolina	0.42321	20	0.67327	-31	3 - 8	4.0 - 7.0	43	3.3456
52	Pittsburgh	0.41480	23	0.64905	-29	4 - 7	3.5 - 7.5	37	3.3940
53	Oregon State	0.40066	63	0.48806	10	3 - 8	3.5 - 7.5	18	3.5232
54	Wake Forest	0.39837	62	0.48818	8	3 - 8	3.0 - 8.0	17	3.5265
55	Utah	0.39776	51	0.52998	-4	4 - 7	3.5 - 7.5	20	3.4736
56	Western Kentucky	0.39633	14	0.74791	-42	10 - 1	10.0 - 1.0	126	2.4439
57	Missouri	0.3955	72	0.44455	15	3 - 8	4.0 - 7.0	45	3.3394
58	San Diego State	0.39027	39	0.56699	-19	9 - 2	9.0 - 2.0	107	2.6020
59	Syracuse	0.38997	76	0.42791	17	4 - 7	4.0 - 7.0	14	3.5585
60	Memphis	0.38691	55	0.52120	-5	10 - 1	8.5 - 2.5	101	2.6223
61	Appalachian State	0.37878	46	0.54734	-15	8 - 2	8.5 - 1.5	121	2.5259
62	BYU	0.3778	40	0.56524	-22	7 - 5	8.0 - 4.0	73	2.8549
63	West Virginia	0.37015	21	0.66956	-42	2 - 9	2.5 - 8.5	26	3.4469
64	Maryland	0.36367	91	0.34695	27	2 - 9	2.5 - 8.5	4	3.6460
65	Toledo	0.36256	54	0.52689	-11	10 - 1	9.0 - 2.0	103	2.6196
66	Arizona	0.36041	105	0.27700	39	4 - 7	3.5 - 7.5	58	3.2432
67	Houston	0.36000	50	0.53410	-17	7 - 5	8.0 - 4.0	81	2.7886
68	Temple	0.35662	31	0.60850	-37	9 - 2	7.0 - 4.0	82	2.7796
69	Western Michigan	0.34164	17	0.69810	-52	8 - 3	8.0 - 3.0	97	2.6394
70	California	0.32355	73	0.43396	3	0 - 11	1.0 - 10.0	8	3.6154
71	Arizona State	0.32140	97	0.31486	26	1 - 11	2.0 - 10.0	25	3.4478
72	Tulsa	0.31997	32	0.60200	-40	6 - 6	7.0 - 5.0	74	2.8493
73	Virginia	0.31839	79	0.42131	6	2 - 9	1.5 - 9.5	56	3.2649
74	Boston College	0.31159	82	0.41332	8	3 - 9	3.5 - 8.5	42	3.3502
75	UCF	0.30310	75	0.43116	0	6 - 5	6.0 - 5.0	80	2.7906
76	Miami (Ohio)	0.30181	83	0.40769	7	10 - 1	8.5 - 2.5	125	2.4554
77	SMU	0.28303	98	0.30853	21	5 - 6	5.0 - 6.0	86	2.7469
78	Wyoming	0.27561	71	0.44999	-7	7 - 4	6.0 - 5.0	100	2.6255
79	Cincinnati	0.27534	93	0.33014	14	6 - 5	6.0 - 5.0	83	2.7722
80	Troy	0.2603	74	0.43152	-6	7 - 3	7.0 - 3.0	115	2.5533
81	Arkansas State	0.2503	67	0.45702	-14	7 - 3	6.5 - 3.5	120	2.5264
82	Army	0.24925	85	0.39932	3	7 - 4	6.5 - 4.5	95	2.6628
83	Southern Mississippi	0.24772	86	0.37466	3	7 - 3	7.0 - 3.0	124	2.4566
84	UTSA	0.24701	88	0.35666	4	8 - 2	6.5 - 3.5	128	2.3985
85	Eastern Michigan	0.24291	87	0.36685	2	5 - 7	6.5 - 5.5	99	2.6257
86	Middle Tennessee	0.24082	94	0.32724	8	7 - 4	5.0 - 6.0	102	2.6198
87	Ohio	0.23842	80	0.41879	-7	8 - 3	6.5 - 4.5	127	2.405
88	Northern Illinois	0.23786	77	0.42738	-11	6 - 5	5.0 - 6.0	104	2.618
89	Old Dominion	0.23459	68	0.45620	-21	7 - 4	5.5 - 5.5	116	2.5508
90	Tulane	0.23276	95	0.32343	5	3 - 8	3.5 - 7.5	69	2.9133
91	Navy	0.22731	48	0.54428	-43	3 - 9	4.0 - 8.0	78	2.8156
92	Rutgers	0.2267	115	0.19807	23	2 - 9	1.5 - 9.5	19	3.483
93	Illinois	0.22660	104	0.28111	11	2 - 10	2.0 - 10.0	54	3.2703
94	Nevada	0.22432	100	0.29530	6	5 - 6	4.0 - 7.0	77	2.8198
95	New Mexico	0.21733	84	0.3995	-11	5 - 6	4.5 - 6.5	90	2.7057
96	Purdue	0.21356	99	0.3012	3	1 - 11	1.5 - 10.5	55	3.2699
97	Louisiana Tech	0.20236	58	0.50449	-39	5 - 5	5.0 - 5.0	111	2.5844
98	Florida Atlantic	0.20128	117	0.19050	19	5 - 6	6.0 - 5.0	119	2.5306
99	Utah State	0.19852	92	0.34022	-7	4 - 7	3.0 - 8.0	79	2.8143
100	Hawai'i	0.19368	101	0.2952	1	3 - 8	3.5 - 7.5	92	2.6801
101	Kansas	0.18965	89	0.35295	-12	1 - 10	1.0 - 10.0	30	3.4221
102	Florida International	0.18882	109	0.23733	7	3 - 8	4.5 - 6.5	114	2.568
103	Massachusetts	0.18584	111	0.23526	8	2 - 8	2.0 - 8.0	68	2.9249
104	Georgia State	0.18412	102	0.2891	-2	5 - 5	4.5 - 5.5	112	2.5803
105	Bowling Green	0.17476	107	0.26829	2	3 - 8	3.5 - 7.5	94	2.6662
106	Georgia Southern	0.1745	90	0.34789	-16	3 - 7	3.0 - 7.0	85	2.7483
107	Central Michigan	0.17403	110	0.23733	3	1 - 10	3.0 - 8.0	96	2.6576
108	Idaho	0.17358	78	0.42374	-30	5 - 5	3.5 - 6.5	122	2.5168
109	San Jose State	0.16745	113	0.22234	4	1 - 11	3.0 - 9.0	75	2.8428
110	Louisiana-Lafayette	0.16745	96	0.32164	-14	5 - 6	4.0 - 7.0	113	2.5788
111	East Carolina	0.1645	106	0.27381	-5	1 - 10	1.0 - 10.0	67	2.9288
112	Ball State	0.15744	103	0.28116	-9	3 - 7	2.0 - 8.0	109	2.5947
113	UNLV	0.15075	119	0.18536	6	2 - 9	3.5 - 7.5	91	2.6993
114	New Mexico State	0.13643	118	0.18920	4	3 - 9	3.5 - 8.5	123	2.4947
115	Marshall	0.1349	126	0.14262	11	2 - 10	2.5 - 9.5	105	2.6162
116	Air Force	0.13353	59	0.50025	-57	1 - 10	1.0 - 10.0	76	2.8386
117	Connecticut	0.13330	123	0.16352	6	0 - 11	0.5 - 10.5	72	2.8687
118	South Alabama	0.12259	112	0.23507	-6	1 - 10	3.0 - 8.0	106	2.6074
119	North Texas	0.11316	116	0.19355	-3	1 - 9	1.0 - 9.0	117	2.5397
120	Kent State	0.10647	108	0.2395	-12	2 - 9	2.5 - 8.5	87	2.7401
121	Rice	0.10533	122	0.16701	1	2 - 9	2.0 - 9.0	93	2.6720
122	Louisiana-Monroe	0.090256	120	0.17688	-2	1 - 10	1.5 - 9.5	71	2.8691
123	Buffalo	0.089197	127	0.13673	4	0 - 11	1.5 - 9.5	118	2.5333
124	UTEP	0.086610	125	0.15013	1	0 - 11	1.5 - 9.5	89	2.7163
125	Akron	0.074473	114	0.19903	-11	1 - 10	1.5 - 9.5	84	2.7674
126	Charlotte	0.071326	121	0.1680	-5	0 - 10	0.5 - 9.5	98	2.6381
127	Fresno State	0.053433	124	0.15338	-3	0 - 11	0.5 - 10.5	65	3.0789
128	Texas State	0	128	0	0	0 - 10	0.5 - 9.5	110	2.5929

The functional form for the equation came down to:

Pred=B1*O_Ret+B2*D_Ret+B3*ln(O_Pre)+B4*ln(D_Pre)+B5*ln(Sp_Pre)+B6*(Recr)^2+B7*(O_Ret*OPre)+B8*(D_Ret*D_Pre)+e

O_Ret, D_Ret: Bill Connelly's returning production