Find the predicted rankings here:
The top 10 should look very familiar. Previous year's performance is a large component in predicting current year performance. Teams at this level are recruiting extremely well and able to reload instead of rebuild. They also often recruit and play talented players from a mix of their classes, they are less senior dependent than schools who have occasional good years. The one major outlier vs. some other projections and Vegas is #10 Georgia who has recruited well and returns a ton of production per Bill Connelly. Obviously I don't expect Alabama, Ohio State, USC, and Washington to all go undefeated, but on paper they are more than 10% better than everyone on their schedule even after you account for home field advantage.
The remainder of the top 25 is filled out with the usual suspects. Texas and Oregon are the biggest bounceback candidates here. They have the same story as Georgia. It is fair to doubt all three, but Texas and Oregon are in year one of a new coaching staff so they might have the biggest downside. Taggart has put together one of the best staffs in college football though so there is some reasonable upside as well. Pat Fitzgerald continues to show the high value of good coaching with what should be a pretty good #22 Northwestern team.
#26-50 has some interesting names in it that could be surprise candidates if they catch some breaks in the season. The Mark Stoops project at #27 Kentucky is one of the more under the radar coaching jobs of late. Kentucky could be pretty good this year. #33 Vanderbilt could, again, ruin some SEC seasons and be good enough to go to a bowl. The teams in this segment that probably have the biggest downside are Indiana, Mississippi, and Texas Tech. The Hoosiers and the Rebels because of coaching turmoil and the Red Raiders because, though they return a lot, their defense was truly awful and some things even maturation can't help. #28 UCLA is another school that has recruited extremely well and returns some production, but it is all going to hinge on their offense as I expect their defense to be special again under Tom Bradley. Count me as a believer in the Bruins good enough to win 8 games, but that Texas A&M game could be a little too much of a referendum on Jim Mora with a restless fan base; especially if A&M struggles in the SEC.
#51-128 holds some teams where voters and the model clearly disagree. #51 North Carolina and #52 Pitt are due for some regression due to personnel losses. The model could read these two wrong and they could be plug and play into the respective systems at this point, but neither of these schools has recruited that well to give you that kind of confidence going forward. I could see both of them underperforming expectations. #56 Western Kentucky loses a ton of talent, but will still probably win most of their games, but they won't be as good as last years team in advanced metrics. #66 Arizona is another downside candidate. The model likes the amount of production returning, but like Texas Tech, the defense was truly terrible last year and it might be more raw talent than development. #67 Houston with Scottsdale product Kyle Allen should be a decent measure of how far the defense has come in week 2. #78 Wyoming could be a candidate to outplay expectations with a potential top draft pick in Josh Allen and under a terrific coach in Craig Bohl. #73 Virginia could test how patient Cavalier fans are going to be with Bronco Mendenhall. #92 Rutgers, #93 Illinois, and #101 Kansas look set to compete for the honor of being the worst power 5 team. An honor that Rutgers barely won last year over Kansas and Arizona.
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