2017 Arizona Wildcats Mid-Season Review

Arizona Offense &  Arizona Defense

Smoothed D3.js Radar Chart


Chart reflect ranking percentile for Offense or Defense vs NCAA 
0 is worst unit in NCAA 100 is best


Well I think only the rosiest of optimists could have seen this season playing out the way it has for Arizona. Sure, you have an unfortunate loss to Houston and an turnover driven loss to Utah in a game Arizona outplayed the Utes substantially, but the last two weeks have been pretty unbelievable at Colorado and at home vs. UCLA. Arizona could conceivably get to 7-9 wins and I thought everyone who was predicting that was crazy before the season.



Week 8 2017 Pac-12 Beta_Rank

Rank School Act Record Pred Record Beta Rank Rank O Score Rank D Score Rank Spcl Tm Score Rank Sched Strength Rank Record Strength
14 Washington 5 - 1 5 - 1 1.5732 29 0.9056 5 -0.695 78 -0.028 85 -0.15 84 -1.584
16 Stanford 5 - 2 6 - 1 1.2623 5 1.4362 63 0.3955 18 0.2216 56 0.1106 60 -0.923
22 USC 6 - 1 7 - 0 1.0336 25 0.9592 29 -0.019 50 0.0547 38 0.2294 13 0.6133
34 Washington State 5 - 1 3 - 3 0.6062 61 0.4974 17 -0.266 108 -0.157 73 -0.042 43 -0.477
37 Arizona State 3 - 3 3 - 3 0.4593 31 0.8632 56 0.3314 91 -0.072 12 0.6361 6 1.5048
40 Utah 3 - 2 2 - 3 0.438 87 0.2287 27 -0.064 32 0.1444 86 -0.163 109 -2.672
41 Arizona 3 - 2 4 - 1 0.4337 7 1.3818 91 0.8577 98 -0.09 94 -0.254 88 -1.813
45 UCLA 3 - 3 2 - 4 0.3281 19 1.0426 98 0.9159 20 0.2014 55 0.125 69 -1.076
57 California 3 - 3 1 - 5 0.1349 86 0.2295 32 0.0057 96 -0.088 19 0.4442 16 0.4879
65 Oregon 3 - 3 4 - 2 0.0442 70 0.4245 61 0.3825 70 0.0023 44 0.2129 75 -1.271
72 Colorado 3 - 3 4 - 2 -0.076 43 0.6736 85 0.7263 77 -0.023 80 -0.104 113 -2.879
115 Oregon State 0 - 6 0 - 6 -1.305 75 0.3837 127 1.7286 53 0.0389 11 0.6433 26 -5.0


#41 Arizona

Rank Offense Rank Defense
Unit Score 7 1.3818 91 0.8577
Drive Efficiency 50 0.3569 121 0.7422
Play Efficiency 5 0.275 68 0.1244
Explosiveness 10 0.7438 53 0.2918
Negative Drives 3 0.0059 67 -0.3
Schedule Strength 81 0.5134 106 0.2075
Drives 116 62 17 62
Points / Drives 8 2.9354 66 2.0483
Punts / Drives 2 0.1935 84 0.3709
Turnovers / Drives 113 0.1612 23 0.1612
Avg Field Pos 52 30.177 57 29.209


Arizona currently looks significantly improved over preseason projections in the Pac-12, but what you should also see is that the Pac-12 is mostly worse than anyone was expecting coming into the year. Arizona has played a very easy schedule so far, #94, and with everyone in the Pac-12 other than Utah, ASU, and Arizona under-performing this looks like a chance for Arizona to pile up some wins against a conference schedule where they miss Stanford and Washington.

con_num Con_code Con_sum Con_tm Con_Rank6 827 Big Ten Conference 10.621560 14 0.7586837 25354 Big 12 Conference 7.582633 10 0.7582633 821 Atlantic Coast Conference 10.519495 14 0.7513925 911 Southeastern Conference 7.141809 14 0.5101290 905 Pac-12 Conference 4.931660 12 0.4109722 823 American Athletic Conference -1.839616 12 -0.1533014 99001 Independent -1.221998 4 -0.3054999 5486 Mountain West Conference -6.646078 12 -0.5538401 875 Mid-American Conference -8.167544 12 -0.68062910 818 Sun Belt Conference -10.018403 12 -0.8348678 24312 Conference USA -12.903518 14 -0.921680


That should give you an idea of the sorry state of the conference as a whole. Sure there is a lot more parity, but that parity isn't at a particularly high level and there are no great teams. If you ever came into a season needing to save your job then you couldn't ask for more than a soft non-con and a conference that becomes unexpectedly bad. Some of this is injuries, Oregon would be a different animal with Herbert around, but a lot of it is just weird poor performance from units with a lot of returning starters, well regarded coordinators, or consistent high recruiting (CU offense and UCLA defense come to mind).

#7 Offense



Week 8 2017 Pac-12 Beta_Rank Offense

Rank School Unit Score Rank Drive Eff Rank Play Eff Rank Exp Drives Rank Neg Drives Rank Sched Strength
5 Stanford 1.4362 34 0.451 4 0.2821 5 0.8746 21 -0.171 52 0.3698
7 Arizona 1.3818 50 0.3569 5 0.275 10 0.7438 3 0.0059 81 0.5134
19 UCLA 1.0426 29 0.4877 51 0.1313 21 0.6102 26 -0.186 100 0.6884
25 USC 0.9592 58 0.3146 40 0.1442 17 0.6379 13 -0.137 51 0.3677
29 Washington 0.9056 12 0.6498 64 0.1181 73 0.3094 22 -0.171 92 0.5832
31 Arizona State 0.8632 11 0.6702 66 0.1173 68 0.3313 42 -0.255 30 0.1932
43 Colorado 0.6736 38 0.4409 97 0.0768 42 0.4445 55 -0.288 106 0.7539
61 Washington State 0.4974 97 0.1311 83 0.0948 26 0.5602 56 -0.288 84 0.5351
70 Oregon 0.4245 93 0.1422 60 0.1239 28 0.553 98 -0.394 43 0.3272
75 Oregon State 0.3837 80 0.2108 94 0.0797 55 0.3843 59 -0.291 17 0.115
86 California 0.2295 68 0.2837 101 0.0742 82 0.284 104 -0.412 24 0.162
87 Utah 0.2287 103 0.0724 82 0.0956 77 0.3006 37 -0.24 99 0.662

I have to get this out of the way: I repeatedly said that Arizona's offense was not one player away when people suggested that Khalil Tate would turn the offense from mediocre to good. I was wrong. Tate has turned Arizona into a top 10 offense in advanced stats and Rodriguez hasn't had a great offense since Matt Scott's year with all the Stoop's recruits.

It isn't even worth talking about UTEP or NAU, but the offense wasn't great against Houston and was just done in by turnovers against Utah. Arizona really outplayed the Utes (the hard part is putting up yards), but was crushed under the weight of all the turnovers. The CU game changed everything. Tate came in an ran all over CU and this really opened up the offense.

I am going to take a moment and digress here because I don't think Rodriguez full understands how his offense has mostly worked, and not worked ,at Arizona. Rodriguez is fond of saying the QB is a point guard in the offense, a distributor., who can also call his own number This was 100% true of Matt Scott. Scott had a bunch of talented guys at the skill positions and he was a phenomenal distributor and he called his own number effectively enough to add an extra wrinkle for the defense to have to cover. As Rodriguez's own recruits have filled the roster this hasn't worked well. Rodriguez hasn't recruited Power 5 level talent outside of the offensive backfield so just being able to distribute the ball doesn't bring much in the way of explosiveness to the offense. Arizona has a very simple route tree and it hasn't been hard to for opposing defenses to slow down Arizona's passing game with man coverage.

Is Tate throwing the ball better than Dawkins? Sure, but the key is that Tate is an explosive monster when he calls his own number and this is opening up the rest of Arizona's playbook. Arizona is at its best generating first downs and driving tempo to keep coverage off balance. Tate adds an extra wrinkle to this because now defenses want to drop into zone to keep eyes on the QB and Arizona's receivers work better against zone coverage. Arizona's offense under Rodriguez has evolved to where it works best with an explosive athlete at QB who calls his own number to generate big plays and open up the playbook for the rest of the offense.

It really is that simple and there in lies the biggest danger for Arizona's offense on the back half of the schedule. Tate is running the zone read and reading running lanes better than even an explosive athlete like Dawkins did. Tate had the advantage of surprise against Colorado and the benefit of UCLA's defense being just awful this year, but what happens if, and it is a big if, somebody is able to shut down the QB runs? Is Tate still superman if he has to win games like Anu Solomon? I don't know the answer and I suspect we won't until we see it.

The rest of the offense has played pretty well, but the line deserves to get called out for the Utah game. Utah has a very good defensive front that also gave USC fits, but better play from the line would have certainly led to fewer turnovers. They also got pushed around by superman Ed Oliver. They had a good game against a decent defense in Colorado and UCLA is just bad so it is hard to give big kudos for being good against such a poor unit. The offense faces a stiffer test on the back half of the schedule starting with Cal who has a significantly improved defense under Wilcox and de Ruyter. Depth remains a concern on the line going into the back half and you would like to see some more rotation of players considering three players will graduate off this year's unit.

Running backs have been good, but not really great or eye popping, but some of that has been the fact that Tate is just running rampant. None of the backs have home run speed, but Tate's explosiveness is opening up holes for them as the defense keys on him and they are getting some nice chunks of yards that they were not getting with Dawkins back there.

The wide-outs and TE's have been serviceable, but I think the wide receivers are the least talented unit on the offense and have been for years. Tate's running has made the passing game significantly more effective and Tate had been very accurate in his passes in two games; which has made the pass catchers extra-effective.

The big thing for Arizona in the second half is to keep Tate healthy. The offense truly depends on him in a way I don't think that I or the folks that called for him to start understood. If Tate is injured I would expect Dawkins to play better than he has prior, he should benefit from watching some Tate tape, but I doubt the offense maintains its current lofty rating if Tate gets hurt. But at least Dawkins is an explosive athlete in his own right. Next year he will almost certainly be gone and there are no other great athletes on the roster who can call their own number to key distribution.

#91 Defense



Week 8 2017 Pac-12 Beta_Rank Defense

Rank School Unit Score Rank Drive Eff Rank Play Eff Rank Exp Drives Rank Neg Drives Rank Sched Strength
5 Washington -0.695 30 0.092 8 0.0179 1 -0.267 13 -0.537 76 0.4078
17 Washington State -0.266 46 0.1879 23 0.0558 9 -0.009 18 -0.5 55 0.4928
27 Utah -0.064 44 0.1734 16 0.0471 36 0.1924 21 -0.477 51 0.5314
29 USC -0.019 41 0.1654 57 0.102 15 0.0613 54 -0.348 44 0.5644
32 California 0.0057 97 0.4485 48 0.0907 6 -0.084 27 -0.448 20 0.6803
56 Arizona State 0.3314 40 0.1636 34 0.0748 73 0.3927 68 -0.299 9 0.8293
61 Oregon 0.3825 50 0.22 109 0.1787 76 0.402 33 -0.418 54 0.5047
63 Stanford 0.3955 60 0.2622 52 0.0958 45 0.2224 102 -0.185 64 0.4646
85 Colorado 0.7263 25 0.0697 126 0.2596 113 0.6272 90 -0.23 29 0.6493
91 Arizona 0.8577 121 0.7422 68 0.1244 53 0.2918 67 -0.3 106 0.2075
98 UCLA 0.9159 118 0.6748 85 0.1471 70 0.3772 72 -0.283 10 0.8135
127 Oregon State 1.7286 128 1.01 106 0.1746 120 0.6883 110 -0.144 13 0.7583


Here we go: the defense is improved, but still not very good. The defense was #125 out of 128 last year so sitting at 91 is a huge improvement, but it might seem disappointing to some fans who have been looking at conventional stats, ugh, and want the defense to be actually good now. Some of this is a function of Arizona's crap-tastic schedule. The only good offense Arizona has played is #19 UCLA. Sort of good #43 Colorado absolutely blasted Arizona's defense and if Montez had any kind of touch or accuracy on a deep ball, they might have lost the game. Arizona mostly plays bad offenses in the second half so the bright side is that the defense might survive the second half pretty well, but it might also convince some of you that the defense is actually good.

The front seven has been serviceable. UCLA's offensive line isn't going to go down as one of the best unit's in Pac-12 history, but they got good pressure on Rosen once UCLA was behind and throwing like mad trying to keep pace with Tate. This is really the best case for Arizona's defense. The worst case is the Colorado game where the Buffs just mauled Arizona at the point of attack. The front seven was terrible in that game. Running the ball, killing clock, and keeping Tate off the field is a better strategy for most teams than trying to throw your way back into the game. Arizona really needs the front seven to step up and figure out slowing the run in the second half.

The secondary has been pretty good and fairly opportunistic in pass defense. They have also been a little lucky at times to not get caught out in bad coverage, like against Colorado. The unit is young and still has room to grow and improve. If the unit can stay healthy and productive then Arizona has a good chance in the second half. They will, of course, be getting Arizona nemesis Luke Falk at home this year, so we'll get to see them put under serious fire. Apparently they don't even have to worry about legal trouble since Rich Rodriguez will be there to make sure you don't even get a one game suspension for allegedly spitting on a woman and holding her against her will.

I think the defense has more room for growth, but I don't think this is the year it turns the corner and is all of a sudden good. Yates deserves a lot of credit for the improvement they have shown so far off last year and if they keep improving in the system and developing young players then next year or the year after could see some significant improvement.

#94 Special Teams


The special teams are still terrible. You can't fully blame Charlie Ragle for this when Rich Rod exists.

Remaining Games



Arizona Schedule

Date Team Opponent Win Prob Team Beta Opp Beta Pts For Pts Allow Pred Pts For Pred Pts Allow O Points Diff D Points Diff
09/09/2017 Arizona Houston 0.7164 0.4337 0.0203 16.0 19.0 18.394 25.717 -2.394 -6.717
09/15/2017 Arizona UTEP 0.9854 0.4337 -2.231 63.0 16.0 43.212 17.920 19.787 -1.920
09/22/2017 Arizona Utah 0.5018 0.4337 0.438 24.0 30.0 28.810 22.569 -4.810 7.4307
10/07/2017 Arizona Colorado 0.7164 0.4337 -0.076 45.0 42.0 44.384 32.260 0.6158 9.7395
10/14/2017 Arizona UCLA 0.5799 0.4337 0.3281 47.0 30.0 44.798 30.874 2.2012 -0.874
10/21/2017 Arizona California 0.6011 0.4337 0.1349 nan nan nan nan nan nan
10/28/2017 Arizona Washington State 0.4721 0.4337 0.6062 nan nan nan nan nan nan
11/04/2017 Arizona USC 0.2562 0.4337 1.0336 nan nan nan nan nan nan
11/11/2017 Arizona Oregon State 0.9854 0.4337 -1.305 nan nan nan nan nan nan
11/18/2017 Arizona Oregon 0.6715 0.4337 0.0442 nan nan nan nan nan nan
11/25/2017 Arizona Arizona State 0.4721 0.4337 0.4593 nan nan nan nan nan nan


Arizona has a surprising chance to put more wins on the board than any rational person expected this season. There are 3 games that the model gives them favorable odds on the back half of the schedule and the WSU and ASU games are nearly a tossup. The flip side of that is that the Cal and Oregon games are fully within the range of very close games. Herbert is likely to be back for that Oregon game so Oregon might be a different animal than the team we have seen the last two weeks when mid November rolls around.

It all revolves around Tate staying healthy for Arizona. If that happens then Arizona wins 6-9 games; with only the USC game looking like it might be just out of reach; though Arizona would win roughly 1/4 of the games if Arizona and USC played 100 times according to the current data, so it isn't a completely unbelievable game for them to pull off. If Tate stays healthy then Rodriguez probably keeps his job as far as football reasons go. If the allegations in the latest federal lawsuit about how Rodriguez and the athletic department handled the Bradford situation are true then it won't matter how many games he wins because he'll be fired with cause and Arizona can keep the buyout. 

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