Arizona Offense & Arizona Defense
Chart reflect ranking percentile for Offense or Defense vs NCAA
0 is worst unit in NCAA 100 is best
0 is worst unit in NCAA 100 is best
Well I think only the rosiest of optimists could have seen this season playing out the way it has for Arizona. Sure, you have an unfortunate loss to Houston and an turnover driven loss to Utah in a game Arizona outplayed the Utes substantially, but the last two weeks have been pretty unbelievable at Colorado and at home vs. UCLA. Arizona could conceivably get to 7-9 wins and I thought everyone who was predicting that was crazy before the season.
Week 8 2017 Pac-12 Beta_Rank |
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Rank | School | Act Record | Pred Record | Beta Rank | Rank | O Score | Rank | D Score | Rank | Spcl Tm Score | Rank | Sched Strength | Rank | Record Strength |
14 | Washington | 5 - 1 | 5 - 1 | 1.5732 | 29 | 0.9056 | 5 | -0.695 | 78 | -0.028 | 85 | -0.15 | 84 | -1.584 |
16 | Stanford | 5 - 2 | 6 - 1 | 1.2623 | 5 | 1.4362 | 63 | 0.3955 | 18 | 0.2216 | 56 | 0.1106 | 60 | -0.923 |
22 | USC | 6 - 1 | 7 - 0 | 1.0336 | 25 | 0.9592 | 29 | -0.019 | 50 | 0.0547 | 38 | 0.2294 | 13 | 0.6133 |
34 | Washington State | 5 - 1 | 3 - 3 | 0.6062 | 61 | 0.4974 | 17 | -0.266 | 108 | -0.157 | 73 | -0.042 | 43 | -0.477 |
37 | Arizona State | 3 - 3 | 3 - 3 | 0.4593 | 31 | 0.8632 | 56 | 0.3314 | 91 | -0.072 | 12 | 0.6361 | 6 | 1.5048 |
40 | Utah | 3 - 2 | 2 - 3 | 0.438 | 87 | 0.2287 | 27 | -0.064 | 32 | 0.1444 | 86 | -0.163 | 109 | -2.672 |
41 | Arizona | 3 - 2 | 4 - 1 | 0.4337 | 7 | 1.3818 | 91 | 0.8577 | 98 | -0.09 | 94 | -0.254 | 88 | -1.813 |
45 | UCLA | 3 - 3 | 2 - 4 | 0.3281 | 19 | 1.0426 | 98 | 0.9159 | 20 | 0.2014 | 55 | 0.125 | 69 | -1.076 |
57 | California | 3 - 3 | 1 - 5 | 0.1349 | 86 | 0.2295 | 32 | 0.0057 | 96 | -0.088 | 19 | 0.4442 | 16 | 0.4879 |
65 | Oregon | 3 - 3 | 4 - 2 | 0.0442 | 70 | 0.4245 | 61 | 0.3825 | 70 | 0.0023 | 44 | 0.2129 | 75 | -1.271 |
72 | Colorado | 3 - 3 | 4 - 2 | -0.076 | 43 | 0.6736 | 85 | 0.7263 | 77 | -0.023 | 80 | -0.104 | 113 | -2.879 |
115 | Oregon State | 0 - 6 | 0 - 6 | -1.305 | 75 | 0.3837 | 127 | 1.7286 | 53 | 0.0389 | 11 | 0.6433 | 26 | -5.0 |
#41 Arizona |
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Rank | Offense | Rank | Defense | |||||||||||
Unit Score | 7 | 1.3818 | 91 | 0.8577 | ||||||||||
Drive Efficiency | 50 | 0.3569 | 121 | 0.7422 | ||||||||||
Play Efficiency | 5 | 0.275 | 68 | 0.1244 | ||||||||||
Explosiveness | 10 | 0.7438 | 53 | 0.2918 | ||||||||||
Negative Drives | 3 | 0.0059 | 67 | -0.3 | ||||||||||
Schedule Strength | 81 | 0.5134 | 106 | 0.2075 | ||||||||||
Drives | 116 | 62 | 17 | 62 | ||||||||||
Points / Drives | 8 | 2.9354 | 66 | 2.0483 | ||||||||||
Punts / Drives | 2 | 0.1935 | 84 | 0.3709 | ||||||||||
Turnovers / Drives | 113 | 0.1612 | 23 | 0.1612 | ||||||||||
Avg Field Pos | 52 | 30.177 | 57 | 29.209 |
Arizona currently looks significantly improved over preseason projections in the Pac-12, but what you should also see is that the Pac-12 is mostly worse than anyone was expecting coming into the year. Arizona has played a very easy schedule so far, #94, and with everyone in the Pac-12 other than Utah, ASU, and Arizona under-performing this looks like a chance for Arizona to pile up some wins against a conference schedule where they miss Stanford and Washington.
con_num Con_code Con_sum Con_tm Con_Rank 6 827 Big Ten Conference 10.621560 14 0.758683 7 25354 Big 12 Conference 7.582633 10 0.758263 3 821 Atlantic Coast Conference 10.519495 14 0.751392 5 911 Southeastern Conference 7.141809 14 0.510129 0 905 Pac-12 Conference 4.931660 12 0.410972 2 823 American Athletic Conference -1.839616 12 -0.153301 4 99001 Independent -1.221998 4 -0.305499 9 5486 Mountain West Conference -6.646078 12 -0.553840 1 875 Mid-American Conference -8.167544 12 -0.680629 10 818 Sun Belt Conference -10.018403 12 -0.834867 8 24312 Conference USA -12.903518 14 -0.921680
That should give you an idea of the sorry state of the conference as a whole. Sure there is a lot more parity, but that parity isn't at a particularly high level and there are no great teams. If you ever came into a season needing to save your job then you couldn't ask for more than a soft non-con and a conference that becomes unexpectedly bad. Some of this is injuries, Oregon would be a different animal with Herbert around, but a lot of it is just weird poor performance from units with a lot of returning starters, well regarded coordinators, or consistent high recruiting (CU offense and UCLA defense come to mind).
#7 Offense
Week 8 2017 Pac-12 Beta_Rank Offense |
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Rank | School | Unit Score | Rank | Drive Eff | Rank | Play Eff | Rank | Exp Drives | Rank | Neg Drives | Rank | Sched Strength |
5 | Stanford | 1.4362 | 34 | 0.451 | 4 | 0.2821 | 5 | 0.8746 | 21 | -0.171 | 52 | 0.3698 |
7 | Arizona | 1.3818 | 50 | 0.3569 | 5 | 0.275 | 10 | 0.7438 | 3 | 0.0059 | 81 | 0.5134 |
19 | UCLA | 1.0426 | 29 | 0.4877 | 51 | 0.1313 | 21 | 0.6102 | 26 | -0.186 | 100 | 0.6884 |
25 | USC | 0.9592 | 58 | 0.3146 | 40 | 0.1442 | 17 | 0.6379 | 13 | -0.137 | 51 | 0.3677 |
29 | Washington | 0.9056 | 12 | 0.6498 | 64 | 0.1181 | 73 | 0.3094 | 22 | -0.171 | 92 | 0.5832 |
31 | Arizona State | 0.8632 | 11 | 0.6702 | 66 | 0.1173 | 68 | 0.3313 | 42 | -0.255 | 30 | 0.1932 |
43 | Colorado | 0.6736 | 38 | 0.4409 | 97 | 0.0768 | 42 | 0.4445 | 55 | -0.288 | 106 | 0.7539 |
61 | Washington State | 0.4974 | 97 | 0.1311 | 83 | 0.0948 | 26 | 0.5602 | 56 | -0.288 | 84 | 0.5351 |
70 | Oregon | 0.4245 | 93 | 0.1422 | 60 | 0.1239 | 28 | 0.553 | 98 | -0.394 | 43 | 0.3272 |
75 | Oregon State | 0.3837 | 80 | 0.2108 | 94 | 0.0797 | 55 | 0.3843 | 59 | -0.291 | 17 | 0.115 |
86 | California | 0.2295 | 68 | 0.2837 | 101 | 0.0742 | 82 | 0.284 | 104 | -0.412 | 24 | 0.162 |
87 | Utah | 0.2287 | 103 | 0.0724 | 82 | 0.0956 | 77 | 0.3006 | 37 | -0.24 | 99 | 0.662 |
I have to get this out of the way: I repeatedly said that Arizona's offense was not one player away when people suggested that Khalil Tate would turn the offense from mediocre to good. I was wrong. Tate has turned Arizona into a top 10 offense in advanced stats and Rodriguez hasn't had a great offense since Matt Scott's year with all the Stoop's recruits.
It isn't even worth talking about UTEP or NAU, but the offense wasn't great against Houston and was just done in by turnovers against Utah. Arizona really outplayed the Utes (the hard part is putting up yards), but was crushed under the weight of all the turnovers. The CU game changed everything. Tate came in an ran all over CU and this really opened up the offense.
I am going to take a moment and digress here because I don't think Rodriguez full understands how his offense has mostly worked, and not worked ,at Arizona. Rodriguez is fond of saying the QB is a point guard in the offense, a distributor., who can also call his own number This was 100% true of Matt Scott. Scott had a bunch of talented guys at the skill positions and he was a phenomenal distributor and he called his own number effectively enough to add an extra wrinkle for the defense to have to cover. As Rodriguez's own recruits have filled the roster this hasn't worked well. Rodriguez hasn't recruited Power 5 level talent outside of the offensive backfield so just being able to distribute the ball doesn't bring much in the way of explosiveness to the offense. Arizona has a very simple route tree and it hasn't been hard to for opposing defenses to slow down Arizona's passing game with man coverage.
Is Tate throwing the ball better than Dawkins? Sure, but the key is that Tate is an explosive monster when he calls his own number and this is opening up the rest of Arizona's playbook. Arizona is at its best generating first downs and driving tempo to keep coverage off balance. Tate adds an extra wrinkle to this because now defenses want to drop into zone to keep eyes on the QB and Arizona's receivers work better against zone coverage. Arizona's offense under Rodriguez has evolved to where it works best with an explosive athlete at QB who calls his own number to generate big plays and open up the playbook for the rest of the offense.
It really is that simple and there in lies the biggest danger for Arizona's offense on the back half of the schedule. Tate is running the zone read and reading running lanes better than even an explosive athlete like Dawkins did. Tate had the advantage of surprise against Colorado and the benefit of UCLA's defense being just awful this year, but what happens if, and it is a big if, somebody is able to shut down the QB runs? Is Tate still superman if he has to win games like Anu Solomon? I don't know the answer and I suspect we won't until we see it.
The rest of the offense has played pretty well, but the line deserves to get called out for the Utah game. Utah has a very good defensive front that also gave USC fits, but better play from the line would have certainly led to fewer turnovers. They also got pushed around by superman Ed Oliver. They had a good game against a decent defense in Colorado and UCLA is just bad so it is hard to give big kudos for being good against such a poor unit. The offense faces a stiffer test on the back half of the schedule starting with Cal who has a significantly improved defense under Wilcox and de Ruyter. Depth remains a concern on the line going into the back half and you would like to see some more rotation of players considering three players will graduate off this year's unit.
Running backs have been good, but not really great or eye popping, but some of that has been the fact that Tate is just running rampant. None of the backs have home run speed, but Tate's explosiveness is opening up holes for them as the defense keys on him and they are getting some nice chunks of yards that they were not getting with Dawkins back there.
The wide-outs and TE's have been serviceable, but I think the wide receivers are the least talented unit on the offense and have been for years. Tate's running has made the passing game significantly more effective and Tate had been very accurate in his passes in two games; which has made the pass catchers extra-effective.
The big thing for Arizona in the second half is to keep Tate healthy. The offense truly depends on him in a way I don't think that I or the folks that called for him to start understood. If Tate is injured I would expect Dawkins to play better than he has prior, he should benefit from watching some Tate tape, but I doubt the offense maintains its current lofty rating if Tate gets hurt. But at least Dawkins is an explosive athlete in his own right. Next year he will almost certainly be gone and there are no other great athletes on the roster who can call their own number to key distribution.
It isn't even worth talking about UTEP or NAU, but the offense wasn't great against Houston and was just done in by turnovers against Utah. Arizona really outplayed the Utes (the hard part is putting up yards), but was crushed under the weight of all the turnovers. The CU game changed everything. Tate came in an ran all over CU and this really opened up the offense.
I am going to take a moment and digress here because I don't think Rodriguez full understands how his offense has mostly worked, and not worked ,at Arizona. Rodriguez is fond of saying the QB is a point guard in the offense, a distributor., who can also call his own number This was 100% true of Matt Scott. Scott had a bunch of talented guys at the skill positions and he was a phenomenal distributor and he called his own number effectively enough to add an extra wrinkle for the defense to have to cover. As Rodriguez's own recruits have filled the roster this hasn't worked well. Rodriguez hasn't recruited Power 5 level talent outside of the offensive backfield so just being able to distribute the ball doesn't bring much in the way of explosiveness to the offense. Arizona has a very simple route tree and it hasn't been hard to for opposing defenses to slow down Arizona's passing game with man coverage.
Is Tate throwing the ball better than Dawkins? Sure, but the key is that Tate is an explosive monster when he calls his own number and this is opening up the rest of Arizona's playbook. Arizona is at its best generating first downs and driving tempo to keep coverage off balance. Tate adds an extra wrinkle to this because now defenses want to drop into zone to keep eyes on the QB and Arizona's receivers work better against zone coverage. Arizona's offense under Rodriguez has evolved to where it works best with an explosive athlete at QB who calls his own number to generate big plays and open up the playbook for the rest of the offense.
It really is that simple and there in lies the biggest danger for Arizona's offense on the back half of the schedule. Tate is running the zone read and reading running lanes better than even an explosive athlete like Dawkins did. Tate had the advantage of surprise against Colorado and the benefit of UCLA's defense being just awful this year, but what happens if, and it is a big if, somebody is able to shut down the QB runs? Is Tate still superman if he has to win games like Anu Solomon? I don't know the answer and I suspect we won't until we see it.
The rest of the offense has played pretty well, but the line deserves to get called out for the Utah game. Utah has a very good defensive front that also gave USC fits, but better play from the line would have certainly led to fewer turnovers. They also got pushed around by superman Ed Oliver. They had a good game against a decent defense in Colorado and UCLA is just bad so it is hard to give big kudos for being good against such a poor unit. The offense faces a stiffer test on the back half of the schedule starting with Cal who has a significantly improved defense under Wilcox and de Ruyter. Depth remains a concern on the line going into the back half and you would like to see some more rotation of players considering three players will graduate off this year's unit.
Running backs have been good, but not really great or eye popping, but some of that has been the fact that Tate is just running rampant. None of the backs have home run speed, but Tate's explosiveness is opening up holes for them as the defense keys on him and they are getting some nice chunks of yards that they were not getting with Dawkins back there.
The wide-outs and TE's have been serviceable, but I think the wide receivers are the least talented unit on the offense and have been for years. Tate's running has made the passing game significantly more effective and Tate had been very accurate in his passes in two games; which has made the pass catchers extra-effective.
The big thing for Arizona in the second half is to keep Tate healthy. The offense truly depends on him in a way I don't think that I or the folks that called for him to start understood. If Tate is injured I would expect Dawkins to play better than he has prior, he should benefit from watching some Tate tape, but I doubt the offense maintains its current lofty rating if Tate gets hurt. But at least Dawkins is an explosive athlete in his own right. Next year he will almost certainly be gone and there are no other great athletes on the roster who can call their own number to key distribution.
#91 Defense
Week 8 2017 Pac-12 Beta_Rank Defense |
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Rank | School | Unit Score | Rank | Drive Eff | Rank | Play Eff | Rank | Exp Drives | Rank | Neg Drives | Rank | Sched Strength |
5 | Washington | -0.695 | 30 | 0.092 | 8 | 0.0179 | 1 | -0.267 | 13 | -0.537 | 76 | 0.4078 |
17 | Washington State | -0.266 | 46 | 0.1879 | 23 | 0.0558 | 9 | -0.009 | 18 | -0.5 | 55 | 0.4928 |
27 | Utah | -0.064 | 44 | 0.1734 | 16 | 0.0471 | 36 | 0.1924 | 21 | -0.477 | 51 | 0.5314 |
29 | USC | -0.019 | 41 | 0.1654 | 57 | 0.102 | 15 | 0.0613 | 54 | -0.348 | 44 | 0.5644 |
32 | California | 0.0057 | 97 | 0.4485 | 48 | 0.0907 | 6 | -0.084 | 27 | -0.448 | 20 | 0.6803 |
56 | Arizona State | 0.3314 | 40 | 0.1636 | 34 | 0.0748 | 73 | 0.3927 | 68 | -0.299 | 9 | 0.8293 |
61 | Oregon | 0.3825 | 50 | 0.22 | 109 | 0.1787 | 76 | 0.402 | 33 | -0.418 | 54 | 0.5047 |
63 | Stanford | 0.3955 | 60 | 0.2622 | 52 | 0.0958 | 45 | 0.2224 | 102 | -0.185 | 64 | 0.4646 |
85 | Colorado | 0.7263 | 25 | 0.0697 | 126 | 0.2596 | 113 | 0.6272 | 90 | -0.23 | 29 | 0.6493 |
91 | Arizona | 0.8577 | 121 | 0.7422 | 68 | 0.1244 | 53 | 0.2918 | 67 | -0.3 | 106 | 0.2075 |
98 | UCLA | 0.9159 | 118 | 0.6748 | 85 | 0.1471 | 70 | 0.3772 | 72 | -0.283 | 10 | 0.8135 |
127 | Oregon State | 1.7286 | 128 | 1.01 | 106 | 0.1746 | 120 | 0.6883 | 110 | -0.144 | 13 | 0.7583 |
Here we go: the defense is improved, but still not very good. The defense was #125 out of 128 last year so sitting at 91 is a huge improvement, but it might seem disappointing to some fans who have been looking at conventional stats, ugh, and want the defense to be actually good now. Some of this is a function of Arizona's crap-tastic schedule. The only good offense Arizona has played is #19 UCLA. Sort of good #43 Colorado absolutely blasted Arizona's defense and if Montez had any kind of touch or accuracy on a deep ball, they might have lost the game. Arizona mostly plays bad offenses in the second half so the bright side is that the defense might survive the second half pretty well, but it might also convince some of you that the defense is actually good.
The front seven has been serviceable. UCLA's offensive line isn't going to go down as one of the best unit's in Pac-12 history, but they got good pressure on Rosen once UCLA was behind and throwing like mad trying to keep pace with Tate. This is really the best case for Arizona's defense. The worst case is the Colorado game where the Buffs just mauled Arizona at the point of attack. The front seven was terrible in that game. Running the ball, killing clock, and keeping Tate off the field is a better strategy for most teams than trying to throw your way back into the game. Arizona really needs the front seven to step up and figure out slowing the run in the second half.
The secondary has been pretty good and fairly opportunistic in pass defense. They have also been a little lucky at times to not get caught out in bad coverage, like against Colorado. The unit is young and still has room to grow and improve. If the unit can stay healthy and productive then Arizona has a good chance in the second half. They will, of course, be getting Arizona nemesis Luke Falk at home this year, so we'll get to see them put under serious fire. Apparently they don't even have to worry about legal trouble since Rich Rodriguez will be there to make sure you don't even get a one game suspension for allegedly spitting on a woman and holding her against her will.
I think the defense has more room for growth, but I don't think this is the year it turns the corner and is all of a sudden good. Yates deserves a lot of credit for the improvement they have shown so far off last year and if they keep improving in the system and developing young players then next year or the year after could see some significant improvement.
The special teams are still terrible. You can't fully blame Charlie Ragle for this when Rich Rod exists.
The front seven has been serviceable. UCLA's offensive line isn't going to go down as one of the best unit's in Pac-12 history, but they got good pressure on Rosen once UCLA was behind and throwing like mad trying to keep pace with Tate. This is really the best case for Arizona's defense. The worst case is the Colorado game where the Buffs just mauled Arizona at the point of attack. The front seven was terrible in that game. Running the ball, killing clock, and keeping Tate off the field is a better strategy for most teams than trying to throw your way back into the game. Arizona really needs the front seven to step up and figure out slowing the run in the second half.
The secondary has been pretty good and fairly opportunistic in pass defense. They have also been a little lucky at times to not get caught out in bad coverage, like against Colorado. The unit is young and still has room to grow and improve. If the unit can stay healthy and productive then Arizona has a good chance in the second half. They will, of course, be getting Arizona nemesis Luke Falk at home this year, so we'll get to see them put under serious fire. Apparently they don't even have to worry about legal trouble since Rich Rodriguez will be there to make sure you don't even get a one game suspension for allegedly spitting on a woman and holding her against her will.
I think the defense has more room for growth, but I don't think this is the year it turns the corner and is all of a sudden good. Yates deserves a lot of credit for the improvement they have shown so far off last year and if they keep improving in the system and developing young players then next year or the year after could see some significant improvement.
#94 Special Teams
The special teams are still terrible. You can't fully blame Charlie Ragle for this when Rich Rod exists.
Remaining Games
Arizona Schedule |
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Date | Team | Opponent | Win Prob | Team Beta | Opp Beta | Pts For | Pts Allow | Pred Pts For | Pred Pts Allow | O Points Diff | D Points Diff | |||
09/09/2017 | Arizona | Houston | 0.7164 | 0.4337 | 0.0203 | 16.0 | 19.0 | 18.394 | 25.717 | -2.394 | -6.717 | |||
09/15/2017 | Arizona | UTEP | 0.9854 | 0.4337 | -2.231 | 63.0 | 16.0 | 43.212 | 17.920 | 19.787 | -1.920 | |||
09/22/2017 | Arizona | Utah | 0.5018 | 0.4337 | 0.438 | 24.0 | 30.0 | 28.810 | 22.569 | -4.810 | 7.4307 | |||
10/07/2017 | Arizona | Colorado | 0.7164 | 0.4337 | -0.076 | 45.0 | 42.0 | 44.384 | 32.260 | 0.6158 | 9.7395 | |||
10/14/2017 | Arizona | UCLA | 0.5799 | 0.4337 | 0.3281 | 47.0 | 30.0 | 44.798 | 30.874 | 2.2012 | -0.874 | |||
10/21/2017 | Arizona | California | 0.6011 | 0.4337 | 0.1349 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | |||
10/28/2017 | Arizona | Washington State | 0.4721 | 0.4337 | 0.6062 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | |||
11/04/2017 | Arizona | USC | 0.2562 | 0.4337 | 1.0336 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | |||
11/11/2017 | Arizona | Oregon State | 0.9854 | 0.4337 | -1.305 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | |||
11/18/2017 | Arizona | Oregon | 0.6715 | 0.4337 | 0.0442 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | |||
11/25/2017 | Arizona | Arizona State | 0.4721 | 0.4337 | 0.4593 | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan |
Arizona has a surprising chance to put more wins on the board than any rational person expected this season. There are 3 games that the model gives them favorable odds on the back half of the schedule and the WSU and ASU games are nearly a tossup. The flip side of that is that the Cal and Oregon games are fully within the range of very close games. Herbert is likely to be back for that Oregon game so Oregon might be a different animal than the team we have seen the last two weeks when mid November rolls around.
It all revolves around Tate staying healthy for Arizona. If that happens then Arizona wins 6-9 games; with only the USC game looking like it might be just out of reach; though Arizona would win roughly 1/4 of the games if Arizona and USC played 100 times according to the current data, so it isn't a completely unbelievable game for them to pull off. If Tate stays healthy then Rodriguez probably keeps his job as far as football reasons go. If the allegations in the latest federal lawsuit about how Rodriguez and the athletic department handled the Bradford situation are true then it won't matter how many games he wins because he'll be fired with cause and Arizona can keep the buyout.
It all revolves around Tate staying healthy for Arizona. If that happens then Arizona wins 6-9 games; with only the USC game looking like it might be just out of reach; though Arizona would win roughly 1/4 of the games if Arizona and USC played 100 times according to the current data, so it isn't a completely unbelievable game for them to pull off. If Tate stays healthy then Rodriguez probably keeps his job as far as football reasons go. If the allegations in the latest federal lawsuit about how Rodriguez and the athletic department handled the Bradford situation are true then it won't matter how many games he wins because he'll be fired with cause and Arizona can keep the buyout.
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