(4-1) last week, (53-25) on the season
Let's get this out of the way, judging Justin Herbert this season requires an evaluation of who he played and did not play. Herbert mostly missed the best Pac-12 defenses and then finished the season against two of the very worst defenses in the country in Arizona and Oregon State. So while I think that the "Herbert for Heisman" hype is likely just typical sports columnist innumeracy, I know that Oregon is a better team with Herbert without him being superman in the minds of folks that only deal in counting stats. Oregon keeping Christobal on as HC probably dampens most of the turmoil that comes with bowls and coaching changes, the offense is likely better than it's rating with Herbert at the helm, and Jim Leavitt with multiple weeks to prepare is very very good; just ask Khalil Tate and the thoroughly out-coached Rich Rodriguez about their trip to Eugene. There is some question whether Leavitt is full on for this game with the K-State rumors. A more interesting question for me is how have coaches on both teams balanced practice with a silly season, that always touches BSU, and the new early recruiting period. Has anyone slept? I think Oregon wins by 10.
Pick
Oregon 41 Boise 31
This has all the makings of a great game on paper. The Mountaineers were consistently good but not great and they lost a lot off of last year's defense. Utah really came on in November, playing very well in their wins as well as their losses. I said at the beginning of the season, that given everything they lost off last year's team, 6-6 and would represent a whale of a coaching job by Whittingham. Well this is even better because the Utes have grown tremendously over the season. Off the top of my head the Utes bring a lot back next season so all the Utes fans calling for Whittingham's head might really eat some crow next year. I like the Utes every so slightly in this game.
Pick
Utah 34 West Virginia 31
There is clearly a lot going on off the field around this matchup. Does UCLA show up under interim coach Jed Fisch? How dialed in is Josh Rosen for what may very well be his final game? On the other side of the field there is a boatload of coaching drama for a team that didn't replace their coach. While it is probably less of a distraction for the players, the inner workings of who will replace Bill Snyder keep leaking out into the public and the palace intrigue of a coach determined to excersise the right of primogeniture and an athletic department that is having none of it. On the field, if both teams show up, this should be a good game. UCLA's defense has played better as the season closed and their offense is still very good. K-State isn't a particularly good offensive team, but they should be able to put up some points. This game is close enough that a turnover here or there could change it for either team; as could an off-field distraction.
Pick
Kansas State 38 UCLA 35
This should be a fun matchup on one side of the ball anyway. Khalil Tate vs. a very good Boilermaker defense should be fun. Purdue has been mostly very good at limiting Explosive Drives, #18 in the model. If they can pull an Oregon against Tate then they should win the game pretty easily, but the tough thing about Tate is that you can have a mostly good game against him, Washington State, and get totally carved up on a few plays and lose. Purdue has mostly struggled when their offense sputters, but that should not be as much of a problem against a very bad Arizona defense. Brohm is a very good offensive mind and I expect he'll have plenty of time to dissect Arizona on tape. If this is a pretty vanilla game as far as big plays and turnovers go, Purdue should win by 10+, but if Tate runs wild and Arizona can get timely pressure on the QB and force 2+ turnovers; then Arizona could win it.
Pick
Purdue 41 Arizona 34
Saturday Dec, 16
Las Vegas Bowl
#46 Boise State (10-3) vs #40 Oregon (7-5) 1230pm PT, ABC
Line: Oregon -7.5
Win Probability: Oregon 52.78%
#34 Boise State Offense vs. #34 Oregon Defense
#46 Oregon Offense vs. #68 Boise State Defense
Las Vegas Bowl
#46 Boise State (10-3) vs #40 Oregon (7-5) 1230pm PT, ABC
Line: Oregon -7.5
Win Probability: Oregon 52.78%
#34 Boise State Offense vs. #34 Oregon Defense
#46 Oregon Offense vs. #68 Boise State Defense
Let's get this out of the way, judging Justin Herbert this season requires an evaluation of who he played and did not play. Herbert mostly missed the best Pac-12 defenses and then finished the season against two of the very worst defenses in the country in Arizona and Oregon State. So while I think that the "Herbert for Heisman" hype is likely just typical sports columnist innumeracy, I know that Oregon is a better team with Herbert without him being superman in the minds of folks that only deal in counting stats. Oregon keeping Christobal on as HC probably dampens most of the turmoil that comes with bowls and coaching changes, the offense is likely better than it's rating with Herbert at the helm, and Jim Leavitt with multiple weeks to prepare is very very good; just ask Khalil Tate and the thoroughly out-coached Rich Rodriguez about their trip to Eugene. There is some question whether Leavitt is full on for this game with the K-State rumors. A more interesting question for me is how have coaches on both teams balanced practice with a silly season, that always touches BSU, and the new early recruiting period. Has anyone slept? I think Oregon wins by 10.
Oregon 41 Boise 31
Tuesday Dec, 26
Heart of Dallas Bowl
#41 Utah (6-6) vs #47 West Virginia (7-5) 1230pm PT, ESPN
Line: Utah -7.0
Win Probability: Utah 52.78%
#45 Utah Offense vs. #50 West Virginia Defense
#28 West Virginia Offense vs. #39 Utah Defense
Heart of Dallas Bowl
#41 Utah (6-6) vs #47 West Virginia (7-5) 1230pm PT, ESPN
Line: Utah -7.0
Win Probability: Utah 52.78%
#45 Utah Offense vs. #50 West Virginia Defense
#28 West Virginia Offense vs. #39 Utah Defense
This has all the makings of a great game on paper. The Mountaineers were consistently good but not great and they lost a lot off of last year's defense. Utah really came on in November, playing very well in their wins as well as their losses. I said at the beginning of the season, that given everything they lost off last year's team, 6-6 and would represent a whale of a coaching job by Whittingham. Well this is even better because the Utes have grown tremendously over the season. Off the top of my head the Utes bring a lot back next season so all the Utes fans calling for Whittingham's head might really eat some crow next year. I like the Utes every so slightly in this game.
Utah 34 West Virginia 31
Cactus Bowl
#39 Kansas State (7-5) vs #49 UCLA (6-6) 6pm PT, ESPN
Line: Kansas State -2.5
Win Probability: Kansas State 57.99%
#56 Kansas State Offense vs. #72 UCLA Defense
#29 UCLA Offense vs. #41 Kansas State Defense
#39 Kansas State (7-5) vs #49 UCLA (6-6) 6pm PT, ESPN
Line: Kansas State -2.5
Win Probability: Kansas State 57.99%
#56 Kansas State Offense vs. #72 UCLA Defense
#29 UCLA Offense vs. #41 Kansas State Defense
There is clearly a lot going on off the field around this matchup. Does UCLA show up under interim coach Jed Fisch? How dialed in is Josh Rosen for what may very well be his final game? On the other side of the field there is a boatload of coaching drama for a team that didn't replace their coach. While it is probably less of a distraction for the players, the inner workings of who will replace Bill Snyder keep leaking out into the public and the palace intrigue of a coach determined to excersise the right of primogeniture and an athletic department that is having none of it. On the field, if both teams show up, this should be a good game. UCLA's defense has played better as the season closed and their offense is still very good. K-State isn't a particularly good offensive team, but they should be able to put up some points. This game is close enough that a turnover here or there could change it for either team; as could an off-field distraction.
Kansas State 38 UCLA 35
Wednesday Dec, 27
Foster Farms Bowl
#54 Arizona (7-5) vs #32 Purdue (6-6) 530pm PT, Fox
Line: Arizona -4.5
Win Probability: Purdue 72.65%
#8 Arizona Offense vs. #16 Purdue Defense
#67 Purdue Offense vs. #114 Arizona Defense
Foster Farms Bowl
#54 Arizona (7-5) vs #32 Purdue (6-6) 530pm PT, Fox
Line: Arizona -4.5
Win Probability: Purdue 72.65%
#8 Arizona Offense vs. #16 Purdue Defense
#67 Purdue Offense vs. #114 Arizona Defense
This should be a fun matchup on one side of the ball anyway. Khalil Tate vs. a very good Boilermaker defense should be fun. Purdue has been mostly very good at limiting Explosive Drives, #18 in the model. If they can pull an Oregon against Tate then they should win the game pretty easily, but the tough thing about Tate is that you can have a mostly good game against him, Washington State, and get totally carved up on a few plays and lose. Purdue has mostly struggled when their offense sputters, but that should not be as much of a problem against a very bad Arizona defense. Brohm is a very good offensive mind and I expect he'll have plenty of time to dissect Arizona on tape. If this is a pretty vanilla game as far as big plays and turnovers go, Purdue should win by 10+, but if Tate runs wild and Arizona can get timely pressure on the QB and force 2+ turnovers; then Arizona could win it.
Purdue 41 Arizona 34
Thursday Dec, 28
Alamo Bowl
#24 Stanford (9-4) vs #11 TCU (10-3) 6pm PT, ESPN
Line: TCU -2.5
Win Probability: TCU 72.65%
#21 Stanford Offense vs. #5 TCU Defense
#53 TCU Offense vs. #51 Stanford Defense
Alamo Bowl
#24 Stanford (9-4) vs #11 TCU (10-3) 6pm PT, ESPN
Line: TCU -2.5
Win Probability: TCU 72.65%
#21 Stanford Offense vs. #5 TCU Defense
#53 TCU Offense vs. #51 Stanford Defense
Another good game that looks a tad tough for the Pac-12 on paper. TCU's defense is actually very good, they just happened to play otherworldly Oklahoma twice; a fate many teams would wilt under. A tough athletic Gary Patterson coached defense with time to prepare sounds like an uphill fight for anyone, but this Stanford offense can be shockingly one dimensional for as well as they have performed and recruited. Sure you run the ball with Bryce Love, but they haven't been able to pass very effectively and a pro-style attack that is great at downhill running SHOULD be able to play action with ease. On the other side of the ball Stanford needs to be opportunistic with Kenny Hill and the TCU offense. They are not anything special, but if they play well and don't turn the ball over then TCU should win the game.
TCU 28 Stanford 24
Holiday Bowl
#42 Washington State (9-3) vs #27 Michigan (9-3) 6pm PT, FS1
Line: WSU -1.0
Win Probability: TCU 69.85%
#77 Washington State Offense vs. #18 Michigan State Defense
#75 Michigan State Offense vs. #12 Washington State Defense
#42 Washington State (9-3) vs #27 Michigan (9-3) 6pm PT, FS1
Line: WSU -1.0
Win Probability: TCU 69.85%
#77 Washington State Offense vs. #18 Michigan State Defense
#75 Michigan State Offense vs. #12 Washington State Defense
This game looks boring as HELL on paper. Two very good defenses ranked pretty close together, two mediocre offenses ranked pretty close together. Who wants to watch a game that could very well be decided by special teams? MSU has the #6 ranked special teams in the model. Wazzu comes in at #118. Which translates to a major advantage for the Spartans. In some ways this year is a huge missed opportunity for Leach. A legitimate offensive wizard; he has often been done in by his defense, but this year his defense carried the team and the offense was just bad. If Leach could have produced a merely Power 5 average offense and special teams to pair with the defense the Cougars would be an interesting playoff contender from a weak Pac-12. As it is he might lose his ace defensive coordinator Alex Grinch to a non-coordinator position at Ohio State; a bitter pill for Pac-12 conference pride. The Spartans can probably also look at this year as a might have been. Dantonio routinely produces good grinding teams, but his offenses are never particularly good. I like Michigan State in this game, but if Wazzu can score some turnovers it could go their way.
Michigan State 17 Washington State 13
Friday Dec, 29
Sun Bowl
#52 Arizona State (7-5) vs #25 North Carolina State (8-4) 12pm PT, CBS
Line: NCST -7.0
Win Probability: NCST 72.64%
#41 ASU Offense vs. #29 NCST Defense
#19 NCST Offense vs. #60 ASU Defense
Sun Bowl
#52 Arizona State (7-5) vs #25 North Carolina State (8-4) 12pm PT, CBS
Line: NCST -7.0
Win Probability: NCST 72.64%
#41 ASU Offense vs. #29 NCST Defense
#19 NCST Offense vs. #60 ASU Defense
On paper this doesn't look like a good matchup for the conference. ASU fired Todd Graham, and while I didn't love Graham as a coach, I do think he was done in more by assistant turnover and an AD that wanted to make his own hire than anything else. That should sound a lot like Mike Stoops to Arizona fans. NC State has been sneaky good all year and they should win this game where they come in without any coaching distraction and a better team, but weird things happen and Graham is coaching this game. His players may show up ready to play, but they will likely need to turn over the Wolfpack 2+ times to win the game. I do think ASU can win it though. They have serious weapons on offense that can change almost any game.
NCST 31 ASU 20
Cotton Bowl
#29 USC (11-2) vs #2 Ohio State (11-2) 12pm PT, CBS
Line: Ohio State -7.5
Win Probability: Ohio State 98.54%
#24 USC Offense vs. #11 Ohio State Defense
#4 Ohio State Offense vs. #38 USC Defense
#29 USC (11-2) vs #2 Ohio State (11-2) 12pm PT, CBS
Line: Ohio State -7.5
Win Probability: Ohio State 98.54%
#24 USC Offense vs. #11 Ohio State Defense
#4 Ohio State Offense vs. #38 USC Defense
In the conventional stats and rankings this looks like the very best non-playoff matchup, but in reality if Ohio State shows up this should not be a close game. USC is a good team, but they are not in Ohio State's league right now. This isn't to say that USC might not play a bit up for this game, but USC has struggled to protect Darnold all season and Ohio State has a wicked pass rush. On the other side of the ball, I think Ohio State shows up ready to send Braxton Miller off in style and put an exclamation point on a deeply under-appreciated career in Columbus. USC could force 4+ turnovers and make this a game, but if Ohio State shows up and plays clean; they win.
Ohio State 48 USC 24
Saturday Dec, 30
Fiesta Bowl
#9 Washington (10-2) vs #2 Penn State (10-2) 1pm PT, ESPN
Line: Penn State -2.0
Win Probability: Penn State 71.64%
#10 Washington Offense vs. #20 Penn State Defense
#6 Penn State Offense vs. #21 Washington Defense
Fiesta Bowl
#9 Washington (10-2) vs #2 Penn State (10-2) 1pm PT, ESPN
Line: Penn State -2.0
Win Probability: Penn State 71.64%
#10 Washington Offense vs. #20 Penn State Defense
#6 Penn State Offense vs. #21 Washington Defense
This game should be pretty fun and is probably the conference's best chance to save face on what has become an ugly bowl season. The offense's and defense's scores actually match up pretty closely so here is a game that might be defined by Penn State's excellent special teams, #2, vs. Washington's merely very good special teams, #23. If Washington can neutralize Penn State in hidden yards and break Pettus loose for big yards they could win this game. Otherwise they will have to gin up some turnovers to slow down an excellent Penn State offense that will probably put up some points on them. Browning and Co. should be able to keep it close, but I think Penn State pulls away in the end.
Penn State 38 Washington 34
Other bowls to come...
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